Serie A
US Sassuolo vs AC Milan prediction: Serie A, Sunday 11 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
US Sassuolo host AC Milan in Serie A on Sunday 11 October, kick-off 19:00 EAT. The match is played at Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore (Reggio Emilia). US Sassuolo are 10th in the table with 7 points from 5 games; AC Milan are 5th with 11.
Our tips for this match
No tip: no market clears our thresholds for this match.
Who will win US Sassuolo vs AC Milan?
AC Milan are favourites, though not by much: 50% to win, 25% for the draw and 24% for US Sassuolo. MegaPari's 1.87 on AC Milan is shorter than our fair price of 2.00: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo to win | 24% | 4.09 | 4.42 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.94 | 3.91 |
| AC Milan to win | 50% | 2.00 | 1.87 |
| US Sassuolo or draw | 50% | 2.01 | 2.03 |
| Draw or AC Milan | 76% | 1.32 | 1.25 |
| US Sassuolo or AC Milan | 75% | 1.34 | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 1.32 | 1.22 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 1.90 | 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47% | 2.11 | 2.08 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 70% | 1.43 | 1.35 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | 1.84 | 1.71 |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | 2.19 | 2.04 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 05:05 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in US Sassuolo vs AC Milan
Expected goals are 1.1 for US Sassuolo and 1.6 for AC Milan, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 53%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 54%.
US Sassuolo vs AC Milan correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 0-1 (10%) and 1-2 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.2% | 8.22 |
| 0-1 | 9.7% | 10.30 |
| 1-2 | 9.4% | 10.59 |
| 0-2 | 8.2% | 12.17 |
| 1-0 | 6.8% | 14.75 |
Form: US Sassuolo and AC Milan in their last five
US Sassuolo have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +0. AC Milan have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +3. The results cover every competition in our data.
US Sassuolo: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2026 | Monza (away)Serie A | 1-2 | L |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Juventus (home)Serie A | 3-2 | W |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Bologna (away)Serie A | 2-2 | D |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Torino (home)Serie A | 2-1 | W |
| 23 Aug 2026 | Atalanta (away)Serie A | 1-2 | L |
AC Milan: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | US Lecce (home)Serie A | 3-0 | W |
| 16 Sep 2026 | Benfica (home)UEFA Europa League | 0-2 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Lazio (away)Serie A | 2-2 | D |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Juventus (away)Serie A | 1-1 | D |
| 28 Aug 2026 | Venezia (home)Serie A | 2-0 | W |
US Sassuolo vs AC Milan head to head
In their last four meetings in our data, US Sassuolo won 1, AC Milan won 1 and 2 were drawn. The most recent, on 3 May 2026, finished US Sassuolo 2–0 AC Milan.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 3 May 2026 | US Sassuolo – AC MilanSerie A | 2-0 |
| 14 Dec 2025 | AC Milan – US SassuoloSerie A | 2-2 |
| 14 Apr 2024 | US Sassuolo – AC MilanSerie A | 3-3 |
| 30 Dec 2023 | AC Milan – US SassuoloSerie A | 1-0 |
The rest of Serie A is on our Serie A page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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