UEFA Champions League
Villarreal vs Napoli prediction: UEFA Champions League, Tuesday 13 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Villarreal host Napoli in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday 13 October, kick-off 22:00 EAT. The match is played at Ceramica (Villarreal). Villarreal are 21st in the table with 0 points from 1 games; Napoli are 27th with 0.
Our tips for this match
- Over 1.5 goals · 79% · Fair odds 1.27 · MegaPari 1.18
- Both teams to score: yes · 59% · Fair odds 1.71 · MegaPari 1.56
Who will win Villarreal vs Napoli?
There is little to separate the sides: Villarreal 44%, the draw 26%, Napoli 30%. MegaPari's 2.31 on Villarreal sits right on our fair price of 2.25.
Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (79%) and both teams to score: yes (59%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal to win | 44% | 2.25 | 2.31 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.91 | 3.66 |
| Napoli to win | 30% | 3.34 | 3.23 |
| Villarreal or draw | 70% | 1.43 | 1.40 |
| Draw or Napoli | 56% | 1.80 | 1.69 |
| Villarreal or Napoli | 74% | 1.34 | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 79% | 1.27 | 1.18 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 1.77 | 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44% | 2.29 | 2.22 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 65% | 1.54 | 1.41 |
| Both teams to score: yes Tip | 59% | 1.71 | 1.56 |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | 2.41 | 2.30 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 05:05 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Villarreal vs Napoli
Expected goals are 1.8 for Villarreal and 1.4 for Napoli, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 56%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 59%.
Villarreal vs Napoli correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 2-1 (9%) and 1-0 (7%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.1% | 9.03 |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | 10.75 |
| 1-0 | 7.4% | 13.42 |
| 1-2 | 7.2% | 13.87 |
| 2-0 | 6.9% | 14.53 |
Form: Villarreal and Napoli in their last five
Villarreal have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +1. Napoli have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -2. The results cover every competition in our data.
Villarreal: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Levante UD (home)LaLiga | 3-1 | W |
| 17 Sep 2026 | Malaga (away)LaLiga | 3-1 | W |
| 14 Sep 2026 | Real Betis (home)LaLiga | 1-2 | L |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Borussia Dortmund (away)UEFA Champions League | 2-3 | L |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Deportivo de A Coruna (home)LaLiga | 2-3 | L |
Napoli: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Fiorentina (away)Serie A | 1-1 | D |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Bologna (home)Serie A | 1-0 | W |
| 9 Sep 2026 | Arsenal (home)UEFA Champions League | 0-1 | L |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Inter (away)Serie A | 2-3 | L |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Como (home)Serie A | 1-2 | L |
Villarreal vs Napoli head to head
Villarreal and Napoli have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
The rest of the UEFA Champions League is on our Champions League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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