Scottish Premiership
Aberdeen vs St. Johnstone prediction: Scottish Premiership, Sunday 11 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Aberdeen host St. Johnstone in the Scottish Premiership on Sunday 11 October, kick-off 16:00 EAT. The match is played at Pittodrie (Aberdeen). Aberdeen are 7th in the table with 8 points from 7 games; St. Johnstone are 6th with 8.
Our tips for this match
No tip: no market clears our thresholds for this match.
Who will win Aberdeen vs St. Johnstone?
There is little to separate the sides: Aberdeen 38%, the draw 29%, St. Johnstone 34%. MegaPari's 2.16 on Aberdeen is shorter than our fair price of 2.67: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen to win | 38% | 2.67 | 2.16 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.50 | 3.28 |
| St. Johnstone to win | 34% | 2.95 | 3.31 |
| Aberdeen or draw | 66% | 1.51 | 1.30 |
| Draw or St. Johnstone | 62% | 1.60 | 1.65 |
| Aberdeen or St. Johnstone | 71% | 1.40 | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | 1.40 | 1.25 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 2.09 | 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52% | 1.92 | 1.83 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 75% | 1.33 | 1.28 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | 1.89 | 1.71 |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | 2.12 | 2.02 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 20:54 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Aberdeen vs St. Johnstone
Expected goals are 1.1 for Aberdeen and 1.3 for St. Johnstone, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 48%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 53%.
Aberdeen vs St. Johnstone correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 14%, ahead of 0-1 (11%) and 0-0 (10%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.6% | 7.37 |
| 0-1 | 11.2% | 8.90 |
| 0-0 | 9.8% | 10.22 |
| 1-0 | 9.8% | 10.26 |
| 1-2 | 8.3% | 12.08 |
Form: Aberdeen and St. Johnstone in their last five
Aberdeen have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +0. St. Johnstone have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. The results cover every competition in our data.
Aberdeen: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Hibernian (away)Scottish Premiership | 1-1 | D |
| 15 Sep 2026 | Motherwell (away)Scottish Premiership | 4-0 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Kilmarnock (home)Scottish Premiership | 0-0 | D |
| 2 Sep 2026 | Celtic (away)Scottish Premiership | 0-3 | L |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Rangers (home)Scottish Premiership | 0-1 | L |
St. Johnstone: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Falkirk (home)Scottish Premiership | 1-1 | D |
| 9 Sep 2026 | Celtic (home)Scottish Premiership | 0-1 | L |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Hibernian (home)Scottish Premiership | 2-1 | W |
| 2 Sep 2026 | Dundee (away)Scottish Premiership | 1-1 | D |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Heart of Midlothian (away)Scottish Premiership | 1-2 | L |
Aberdeen vs St. Johnstone head to head
In their last three meetings in our data, Aberdeen won 1, St. Johnstone won none and 2 were drawn. The most recent, on 15 March 2025, finished St. Johnstone 0–0 Aberdeen.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 15 Mar 2025 | St. Johnstone – AberdeenScottish Premiership | 0-0 |
| 7 Dec 2024 | Aberdeen – St. JohnstoneScottish Premiership | 1-1 |
| 5 Aug 2024 | St. Johnstone – AberdeenScottish Premiership | 1-2 |
All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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