Eredivisie
Ajax vs NEC prediction: Eredivisie, Saturday 10 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Ajax host NEC in Eredivisie on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 22:00 EAT. The match is played at Johan Cruyff Arena (Amsterdam). Ajax are 5th in the table with 14 points from 7 games; NEC are 11th with 8.
Our tips for this match
- Ajax to win · 66% · Fair odds 1.51 · MegaPari 1.30
- Ajax or draw · 84% · Fair odds 1.19 · MegaPari 1.05
- Over 1.5 goals · 85% · Fair odds 1.18 · MegaPari 1.03
- Over 2.5 goals · 69% · Fair odds 1.45 · MegaPari 1.26
- Both teams to score: yes · 61% · Fair odds 1.65 · MegaPari 1.53
Who will win Ajax vs NEC?
The model makes Ajax clear favourites at 66%, with the draw at 18% and NEC at 16%. MegaPari's 1.30 on Ajax is shorter than our fair price of 1.51: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Five markets clear our thresholds for this match: Ajax to win (66%), Ajax or draw (84%), over 1.5 goals (85%), over 2.5 goals (69%) and both teams to score: yes (61%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax to win Tip | 66% | 1.51 | 1.30 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.61 | 5.90 |
| NEC to win | 16% | 6.34 | 9.00 |
| Ajax or draw Tip | 84% | 1.19 | 1.05 |
| Draw or NEC | 34% | 2.98 | 3.52 |
| Ajax or NEC | 82% | 1.22 | 1.14 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 85% | 1.18 | 1.03 |
| Over 2.5 goals Tip | 69% | 1.45 | 1.26 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31% | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 56% | 1.80 | 2.02 |
| Both teams to score: yes Tip | 61% | 1.65 | 1.53 |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | 2.55 | 2.35 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 20:54 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Ajax vs NEC
Goals are expected: 2.4 for Ajax and 1.4 for NEC, 3.8 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 69%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 61%.
Ajax vs NEC correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 2-1 at 9%, ahead of 1-1 (8%) and 3-1 (7%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 11 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 9.0% | 11.10 |
| 1-1 | 7.8% | 12.84 |
| 3-1 | 7.2% | 13.83 |
| 2-0 | 6.4% | 15.53 |
| 2-2 | 6.3% | 15.87 |
Form: Ajax and NEC in their last five
Ajax have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +10. NEC have not won in 5 (2 draws, 3 defeats) and scored 4 in that run. The results cover every competition in our data.
Ajax: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | SBV Excelsior (home)Eredivisie | 2-2 | D |
| 15 Sep 2026 | Willem II (home)Eredivisie | 5-1 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Fortuna Sittard (away)Eredivisie | 5-1 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | PSV Eindhoven (home)Eredivisie | 1-3 | L |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Telstar (away)Eredivisie | 4-0 | W |
NEC: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Go Ahead Eagles (home)Eredivisie | 1-1 | D |
| 17 Sep 2026 | Juventus (away)UEFA Europa League | 0-5 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Cambuur (away)Eredivisie | 0-3 | L |
| 8 Sep 2026 | SBV Excelsior (home)Eredivisie | 2-2 | D |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Feyenoord (home)Eredivisie | 1-3 | L |
Ajax vs NEC head to head
In their last six meetings in our data, Ajax won 2, NEC won 1 and 3 were drawn. The most recent, on 21 February 2026, finished Ajax 1–1 NEC.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 21 Feb 2026 | Ajax – NECEredivisie | 1-1 |
| 20 Dec 2025 | NEC – AjaxEredivisie | 2-2 |
| 11 May 2025 | Ajax – NECEredivisie | 0-3 |
| 1 Dec 2024 | NEC – AjaxEredivisie | 1-2 |
| 18 Feb 2024 | Ajax – NECEredivisie | 2-2 |
| 3 Dec 2023 | NEC – AjaxEredivisie | 1-2 |
All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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