Primeira Liga
Arouca vs Estrela da Amadora prediction: Primeira Liga, Sunday 11 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Arouca host Estrela da Amadora in Primeira Liga on Sunday 11 October, kick-off 22:30 EAT. The match is played at Municipal de Arouca (Arouca). Arouca are 5th in the table with 11 points from 7 games; Estrela da Amadora are 8th with 10.
Our tips for this match
- Over 1.5 goals · 80% · Fair odds 1.25 · MegaPari 1.23
Who will win Arouca vs Estrela da Amadora?
Arouca are favourites, though not by much: 49% to win, 25% for the draw and 26% for Estrela da Amadora. MegaPari's 2.09 on Arouca sits right on our fair price of 2.05.
One market clears our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (80%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arouca to win | 49% | 2.05 | 2.09 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.01 | 3.54 |
| Estrela da Amadora to win | 26% | 3.81 | 3.40 |
| Arouca or draw | 74% | 1.36 | 1.33 |
| Draw or Estrela da Amadora | 51% | 1.95 | 1.76 |
| Arouca or Estrela da Amadora | 75% | 1.33 | 1.31 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 80% | 1.25 | 1.23 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 1.84 | 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46% | 2.19 | 1.91 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 64% | 1.56 | 1.28 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | 1.79 | 1.70 |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | 2.27 | 2.04 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 20:54 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Arouca vs Estrela da Amadora
Expected goals are 1.9 for Arouca and 1.3 for Estrela da Amadora, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 54%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 56%.
Arouca vs Estrela da Amadora correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 10%, ahead of 2-1 (10%) and 2-0 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 10 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.5% | 9.53 |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | 10.35 |
| 2-0 | 7.7% | 13.05 |
| 1-0 | 7.6% | 13.16 |
| 1-2 | 6.3% | 15.75 |
Form: Arouca and Estrela da Amadora in their last five
Arouca have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -2. Estrela da Amadora have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +0. The results cover every competition in our data.
Arouca: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Sporting CP (away)Primeira Liga | 2-2 | D |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Santa Clara (home)Primeira Liga | 1-2 | L |
| 7 Sep 2026 | GD Estoril Praia (away)Primeira Liga | 0-0 | D |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Marítimo (home)Primeira Liga | 2-1 | W |
| 23 Aug 2026 | Porto (away)Primeira Liga | 0-2 | L |
Estrela da Amadora: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Academico de Viseu (home)Primeira Liga | 0-2 | L |
| 14 Sep 2026 | Rio Ave (away)Primeira Liga | 3-3 | D |
| 10 Sep 2026 | Braga (home)Primeira Liga | 2-1 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Famalicão (home)Primeira Liga | 2-2 | D |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Nacional (away)Primeira Liga | 3-2 | W |
Arouca vs Estrela da Amadora head to head
In their last six meetings in our data, Arouca won 3, Estrela da Amadora won 2 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 19 April 2026, finished Arouca 1–0 Estrela da Amadora.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 19 Apr 2026 | Arouca – Estrela da AmadoraPrimeira Liga | 1-0 |
| 7 Dec 2025 | Estrela da Amadora – AroucaPrimeira Liga | 3-1 |
| 19 Apr 2025 | Arouca – Estrela da AmadoraPrimeira Liga | 1-0 |
| 9 Dec 2024 | Estrela da Amadora – AroucaPrimeira Liga | 2-1 |
| 5 May 2024 | Arouca – Estrela da AmadoraPrimeira Liga | 0-0 |
| 28 Dec 2023 | Estrela da Amadora – AroucaPrimeira Liga | 1-4 |
All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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