UEFA Champions League
Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe prediction: UEFA Champions League, Wednesday 14 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Aston Villa host Fenerbahçe in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday 14 October, kick-off 22:00 EAT. The match is played at Villa Park (Birmingham). Aston Villa are 9th in the table with 3 points from 1 games; Fenerbahçe are 20th with 1.
Who will win Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe?
Aston Villa are favourites, though not by much: 58% to win, 23% for the draw and 19% for Fenerbahçe. MegaPari's 1.74 on Aston Villa sits right on our fair price of 1.72.
Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: Aston Villa to win (58%), Aston Villa or draw (81%) and over 1.5 goals (78%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa to win Tip | 58% | 1.72 | 1.74 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.33 | 4.05 |
| Fenerbahçe to win | 19% | 5.36 | 5.18 |
| Aston Villa or draw Tip | 81% | 1.23 | 1.20 |
| Draw or Fenerbahçe | 42% | 2.40 | 2.22 |
| Aston Villa or Fenerbahçe | 77% | 1.30 | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 78% | 1.27 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 1.77 | 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44% | 2.30 | 2.27 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 66% | 1.52 | 1.44 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | 1.80 | 1.65 |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | 2.25 | 2.13 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 8 October 2026, 00:25 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe
Expected goals are 2.0 for Aston Villa and 1.0 for Fenerbahçe, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 56%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 56%.
Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 10%, ahead of 2-1 (10%) and 2-0 (10%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 10 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.3% | 9.72 |
| 2-1 | 10.0% | 10.05 |
| 2-0 | 9.7% | 10.31 |
| 1-0 | 9.2% | 10.82 |
| 3-1 | 6.7% | 14.99 |
Form: Aston Villa and Fenerbahçe in their last five
Aston Villa have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +0. Fenerbahçe have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +9. The results cover every competition in our data.
Aston Villa: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Tottenham (away)Premier League | 3-2 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Nottingham Forest (home)Premier League | 1-2 | L |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Club Brugge (away)UEFA Champions League | 3-2 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Hull City (away)Premier League | 0-0 | D |
| 31 Aug 2026 | Arsenal (home)Premier League | 0-1 | L |
Fenerbahçe: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Eyupspor (home)Süper Lig | 8-0 | W |
| 14 Sep 2026 | Gaziantep (away)Süper Lig | 0-0 | D |
| 10 Sep 2026 | Roma (home)UEFA Champions League | 1-1 | D |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Beşiktaş (home)Süper Lig | 1-2 | L |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Samsunspor (away)Süper Lig | 2-0 | W |
Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe head to head
The two have met once in our data: on 22 January 2026, Fenerbahçe 0–1 Aston Villa.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 22 Jan 2026 | Fenerbahçe – Aston VillaUEFA Europa League | 0-1 |
How the odds have moved
MegaPari's price on Aston Villa has shortened from 1.80 to 1.74 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.76 to 1.74, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.
| Bet | Opening odds | Latest odds |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa to win | 1.80 | 1.74 ↓ |
| Draw | 3.92 | 4.05 ↑ |
| Fenerbahçe to win | 4.88 | 5.18 ↑ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.76 | 1.74 ↓ |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.23 | 2.27 ↑ |
| Both teams to score: yes | 1.64 | 1.65 ↑ |
| Both teams to score: no | 2.15 | 2.13 ↓ |
Prices from MegaPari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.
The rest of the UEFA Champions League is on our Champions League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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