Benfica vs Vitória de Guimarães prediction: Primeira Liga, Sunday 11 October

Benfica host Vitória de Guimarães in Primeira Liga on Sunday 11 October, kick-off 20:00 EAT. The match is played at Estadio da Luz (Lisbon). Benfica are 2nd in the table with 16 points from 7 games; Vitória de Guimarães are 14th with 5.

Who will win Benfica vs Vitória de Guimarães?

The model makes Benfica clear favourites at 78%, with the draw at 14% and Vitória de Guimarães at 7%. MegaPari's 1.21 on Benfica is shorter than our fair price of 1.28: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Four markets clear our thresholds for this match: Benfica to win (78%), Benfica or draw (93%), over 1.5 goals (80%) and over 2.5 goals (61%).

Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 22:36 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Benfica vs Vitória de Guimarães

Goals are expected: 2.6 for Benfica and 0.7 for Vitória de Guimarães, 3.2 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 61%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 49%.

Benfica vs Vitória de Guimarães correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 2-0 at 13%, ahead of 3-0 (11%) and 1-0 (10%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: Benfica and Vitória de Guimarães in their last five

Benfica have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +9. Vitória de Guimarães have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. The results cover every competition in our data.

Benfica: last five matches

Vitória de Guimarães: last five matches

Benfica vs Vitória de Guimarães head to head

In their last five meetings in our data, Benfica won 4, Vitória de Guimarães won none and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 21 March 2026, finished Benfica 3–0 Vitória de Guimarães.

How the odds have moved

MegaPari's price on Benfica has shortened from 1.22 to 1.21 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them.

Prices from MegaPari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.