Süper Lig
Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor prediction: Süper Lig, Sunday 11 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Beşiktaş host Kocaelispor in the Süper Lig on Sunday 11 October, kick-off 19:00 EAT. The match is played at Tupras (Istanbul). Beşiktaş are 3rd in the table with 12 points from 6 games; Kocaelispor are 4th with 12.
Who will win Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor?
The model makes Beşiktaş clear favourites at 67%, with the draw at 21% and Kocaelispor at 11%. MegaPari's 1.27 on Beşiktaş is shorter than our fair price of 1.48: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: Beşiktaş to win (67%), Beşiktaş or draw (89%) and under 3.5 goals (80%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beşiktaş to win Tip | 67% | 1.48 | 1.27 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.66 | 6.21 |
| Kocaelispor to win | 11% | 8.92 | 11.60 |
| Beşiktaş or draw Tip | 89% | 1.13 | 1.03 |
| Draw or Kocaelispor | 33% | 3.06 | 3.96 |
| Beşiktaş or Kocaelispor | 79% | 1.27 | 1.14 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | 1.49 | 1.15 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 2.00 | 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50% | 2.00 | 2.35 |
| Under 3.5 goals Tip | 80% | 1.25 | 1.46 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 45% | 2.24 | 2.06 |
| Both teams to score: no | 55% | 1.81 | 1.68 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 22:36 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor
Expected goals are 1.5 for Beşiktaş and 0.6 for Kocaelispor, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 50%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 45%.
Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-0 at 19%, ahead of 2-0 (14%) and 0-0 (13%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 5 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 18.5% | 5.40 |
| 2-0 | 14.0% | 7.17 |
| 0-0 | 13.3% | 7.51 |
| 1-1 | 11.4% | 8.78 |
| 2-1 | 8.1% | 12.41 |
Form: Beşiktaş and Kocaelispor in their last five
Beşiktaş have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +10. Kocaelispor have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +5. The results cover every competition in our data.
Beşiktaş: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Amedspor (away)Süper Lig | 2-3 | L |
| 17 Sep 2026 | Marseille (home)UEFA Europa League | 4-1 | W |
| 11 Sep 2026 | BB Erzurumspor (home)Süper Lig | 3-0 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Fenerbahçe (away)Süper Lig | 2-1 | W |
| 31 Aug 2026 | Arca Corum (home)Süper Lig | 6-2 | W |
Kocaelispor: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Gaziantep (home)Süper Lig | 2-0 | W |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Galatasaray (away)Süper Lig | 0-1 | L |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Samsunspor (home)Süper Lig | 1-0 | W |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Konyaspor (away)Süper Lig | 2-1 | W |
| 24 Aug 2026 | Amedspor (home)Süper Lig | 2-0 | W |
Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor head to head
In their last two meetings in our data, Beşiktaş won 2, Kocaelispor won none and none was drawn. The most recent, on 28 February 2026, finished Kocaelispor 0–1 Beşiktaş.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 28 Feb 2026 | Kocaelispor – BeşiktaşSüper Lig | 0-1 |
| 29 Sep 2025 | Beşiktaş – KocaelisporSüper Lig | 3-1 |
How the odds have moved
MegaPari's price on Beşiktaş has drifted from 1.26 to 1.27 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.63 to 1.65, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.
| Bet | Opening odds | Latest odds |
|---|---|---|
| Beşiktaş to win | 1.26 | 1.27 ↑ |
| Draw | 6.45 | 6.21 ↓ |
| Kocaelispor to win | 11.70 | 11.60 ↓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.63 | 1.65 ↑ |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.40 | 2.35 ↓ |
| Both teams to score: yes | 2.03 | 2.06 ↑ |
| Both teams to score: no | 1.70 | 1.68 ↓ |
Prices from MegaPari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.
All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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