EFL Championship
Bolton Wanderers vs Stoke City prediction: EFL Championship, Saturday 10 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Bolton Wanderers
Stoke City
- Bolton Wanderers
- 39%MegaPari 2.71
- Draw
- 28%MegaPari 3.28
- Stoke City
- 33%MegaPari 2.49
No tip: no market clears our thresholds for this match.
xG 1.5–1.1 · likeliest 1-1 (13%)
Bolton Wanderers host Stoke City in the EFL Championship on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 17:00 EAT.
Who will win Bolton Wanderers vs Stoke City?
There is little to separate the sides: Bolton Wanderers 39%, the draw 28%, Stoke City 33%. MegaPari pays 2.71 on Bolton Wanderers, more than our fair price of 2.54.
No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton Wanderers to win | 39% | 2.54 | 2.71 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.61 | 3.28 |
| Stoke City to win | 33% | 3.03 | 2.49 |
| Bolton Wanderers or draw | 67% | 1.49 | 1.49 |
| Draw or Stoke City | 61% | 1.65 | 1.42 |
| Bolton Wanderers or Stoke City | 72% | 1.38 | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 1.36 | 1.24 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 1.99 | 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50% | 2.01 | 1.89 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 72% | 1.38 | 1.31 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | 1.83 | 1.65 |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | 2.20 | 2.11 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 22:36 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Bolton Wanderers vs Stoke City
Expected goals are 1.5 for Bolton Wanderers and 1.1 for Stoke City, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 50%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 55%.
Bolton Wanderers vs Stoke City correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 1-0 (11%) and 2-1 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.9% | 7.76 |
| 1-0 | 10.5% | 9.50 |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | 11.06 |
| 0-0 | 8.1% | 12.42 |
| 2-0 | 8.0% | 12.44 |
Form: Bolton Wanderers and Stoke City in their last five
Bolton Wanderers have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -4. Stoke City are unbeaten in 5 (4 wins, 1 draw), with 10 goals scored and 3 conceded. The results cover every competition in our data.
Bolton Wanderers: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Norwich City (away)EFL Championship | 4-3 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Cardiff City (home)EFL Championship | 1-0 | W |
| 8 Sep 2026 | West Ham (home)EFL Championship | 2-3 | L |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Millwall (away)EFL Championship | 0-4 | L |
| 1 Sep 2026 | Sheffield United (away)EFL Championship | 2-3 | L |
Stoke City: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Sheffield United (home)EFL Championship | 2-1 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Watford (away)EFL Championship | 2-1 | W |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Cardiff City (away)EFL Championship | 1-1 | D |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Charlton Athletic (home)EFL Championship | 4-0 | W |
| 1 Sep 2026 | Norwich City (home)EFL Championship | 1-0 | W |
Bolton Wanderers vs Stoke City head to head
Bolton Wanderers and Stoke City have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
The rest of the EFL Championship is on our Championship page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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