EFL Championship
Cardiff City vs Watford prediction: EFL Championship, Tuesday 13 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Cardiff City host Watford in the EFL Championship on Tuesday 13 October, kick-off 21:45 EAT.
Our tips for this match
No tip: no market clears our thresholds for this match.
Who will win Cardiff City vs Watford?
Cardiff City are favourites, though not by much: 50% to win, 25% for the draw and 25% for Watford. MegaPari's 1.83 on Cardiff City is shorter than our fair price of 1.99: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff City to win | 50% | 1.99 | 1.83 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.02 | 3.90 |
| Watford to win | 25% | 4.04 | 3.69 |
| Cardiff City or draw | 75% | 1.33 | – |
| Draw or Watford | 50% | 2.01 | – |
| Cardiff City or Watford | 75% | 1.33 | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | 1.34 | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 1.96 | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49% | 2.04 | – |
| Under 3.5 goals | 71% | 1.40 | – |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | 1.88 | – |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | 2.13 | – |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 20:54 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Cardiff City vs Watford
Expected goals are 1.6 for Cardiff City and 1.1 for Watford, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 51%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 53%.
Cardiff City vs Watford correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 1-0 (11%) and 2-1 (10%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.3% | 8.10 |
| 1-0 | 10.9% | 9.20 |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | 10.53 |
| 2-0 | 9.1% | 11.01 |
| 0-0 | 7.6% | 13.23 |
Form: Cardiff City and Watford in their last five
Cardiff City have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -2. Watford have won 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -4. The results cover every competition in our data.
Cardiff City: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Charlton Athletic (home)EFL Championship | 3-1 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Bolton Wanderers (away)EFL Championship | 0-1 | L |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Stoke City (home)EFL Championship | 1-1 | D |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Portsmouth (away)EFL Championship | 0-2 | L |
| 2 Sep 2026 | Queens Park Rangers (away)EFL Championship | 1-2 | L |
Watford: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2026 | Bristol City (away)EFL Championship | 0-1 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Stoke City (home)EFL Championship | 1-2 | L |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Preston North End (home)EFL Championship | 2-1 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | West Bromwich Albion (away)EFL Championship | 0-1 | L |
| 1 Sep 2026 | Swansea City (away)EFL Championship | 0-2 | L |
Cardiff City vs Watford head to head
In their last four meetings in our data, Cardiff City won 2, Watford won none and 2 were drawn. The most recent, on 14 January 2025, finished Cardiff City 1–1 Watford.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 14 Jan 2025 | Cardiff City – WatfordEFL Championship | 1-1 |
| 29 Dec 2024 | Watford – Cardiff CityEFL Championship | 1-2 |
| 3 Feb 2024 | Watford – Cardiff CityEFL Championship | 0-1 |
| 7 Oct 2023 | Cardiff City – WatfordEFL Championship | 1-1 |
The rest of the EFL Championship is on our Championship page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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