Primeira Liga
Casa Pia vs Santa Clara prediction: Primeira Liga, Saturday 10 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Casa Pia host Santa Clara in Primeira Liga on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 17:30 EAT. The match is played at Rio Maior Sports Centre (Rio Maior). Casa Pia are 17th in the table with 4 points from 7 games; Santa Clara are 4th with 15.
Our tips for this match
- Under 3.5 goals · 80% · Fair odds 1.25 · MegaPari 1.14
Who will win Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
Santa Clara are favourites, though not by much: 49% to win, 29% for the draw and 22% for Casa Pia. MegaPari's 1.90 on Santa Clara is shorter than our fair price of 2.05: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
One market clears our thresholds for this match: under 3.5 goals (80%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia to win | 22% | 4.54 | 4.32 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.44 | 3.38 |
| Santa Clara to win | 49% | 2.05 | 1.90 |
| Casa Pia or draw | 51% | 1.96 | 1.92 |
| Draw or Santa Clara | 78% | 1.28 | 1.23 |
| Casa Pia or Santa Clara | 71% | 1.41 | 1.34 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | 1.49 | 1.38 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 2.46 | 2.37 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 59% | 1.68 | 1.58 |
| Under 3.5 goals Tip | 80% | 1.25 | 1.14 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 46% | 2.18 | 2.06 |
| Both teams to score: no | 54% | 1.85 | 1.68 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 20:54 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Casa Pia vs Santa Clara
The numbers point to a tight game: expected goals of 0.8 and 1.3, and under 2.5 goals at 59%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 46%.
Casa Pia vs Santa Clara correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 0-1 at 16%, ahead of 0-0 (13%) and 1-1 (13%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 6 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 15.9% | 6.27 |
| 0-0 | 13.4% | 7.46 |
| 1-1 | 13.2% | 7.56 |
| 0-2 | 10.5% | 9.54 |
| 1-0 | 9.5% | 10.56 |
Form: Casa Pia and Santa Clara in their last five
Casa Pia have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -5. Santa Clara are unbeaten in 5 (3 wins, 2 draws), with 8 goals scored and 2 conceded. The results cover every competition in our data.
Casa Pia: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | GD Estoril Praia (away)Primeira Liga | 2-1 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Porto (home)Primeira Liga | 1-4 | L |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Vitória de Guimarães (away)Primeira Liga | 0-0 | D |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Moreirense (home)Primeira Liga | 0-1 | L |
| 24 Aug 2026 | Gil Vicente (away)Primeira Liga | 0-2 | L |
Santa Clara: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Braga (home)Primeira Liga | 0-0 | D |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Arouca (away)Primeira Liga | 2-1 | W |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Rio Ave (home)Primeira Liga | 4-0 | W |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Alverca (away)Primeira Liga | 1-1 | D |
| 23 Aug 2026 | Famalicão (home)Primeira Liga | 1-0 | W |
Casa Pia vs Santa Clara head to head
In their last four meetings in our data, Casa Pia won none, Santa Clara won 3 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 18 April 2026, finished Casa Pia 0–0 Santa Clara.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 18 Apr 2026 | Casa Pia – Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga | 0-0 |
| 6 Dec 2025 | Santa Clara – Casa PiaPrimeira Liga | 1-0 |
| 1 Feb 2025 | Santa Clara – Casa PiaPrimeira Liga | 2-1 |
| 24 Aug 2024 | Casa Pia – Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga | 0-2 |
How the odds have moved
MegaPari's price on Santa Clara has shortened from 1.92 to 1.90 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 2.49 to 2.37, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.
| Bet | Opening odds | Latest odds |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia to win | 4.34 | 4.32 ↓ |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.38 ↑ |
| Santa Clara to win | 1.92 | 1.90 ↓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.49 | 2.37 ↓ |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.54 | 1.58 ↑ |
| Both teams to score: yes | 2.14 | 2.06 ↓ |
| Both teams to score: no | 1.63 | 1.68 ↑ |
Prices from MegaPari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.
All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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