EFL Championship
Derby County vs Wrexham prediction: EFL Championship, Saturday 10 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Derby County host Wrexham in the EFL Championship on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 17:00 EAT.
Our tips for this match
No tip: no market clears our thresholds for this match.
Who will win Derby County vs Wrexham?
There is little to separate the sides: Derby County 39%, the draw 27%, Wrexham 34%. MegaPari's 2.65 on Derby County sits right on our fair price of 2.59.
No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby County to win | 39% | 2.59 | 2.65 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.67 | 3.25 |
| Wrexham to win | 34% | 2.93 | 2.56 |
| Derby County or draw | 66% | 1.52 | 1.47 |
| Draw or Wrexham | 61% | 1.63 | 1.44 |
| Derby County or Wrexham | 73% | 1.37 | 1.31 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 1.31 | 1.29 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 1.99 | 1.99 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50% | 2.01 | 1.76 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 69% | 1.45 | 1.24 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | 1.85 | 1.76 |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | 2.17 | 1.96 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 20:54 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Derby County vs Wrexham
Expected goals are 1.5 for Derby County and 1.3 for Wrexham, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 50%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 54%.
Derby County vs Wrexham correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 2-1 (9%) and 1-0 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.2% | 8.17 |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | 11.16 |
| 1-0 | 8.6% | 11.66 |
| 1-2 | 7.6% | 13.07 |
| 0-1 | 7.3% | 13.77 |
Form: Derby County and Wrexham in their last five
Derby County have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -3. Wrexham have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -2. The results cover every competition in our data.
Derby County: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Burnley (away)EFL Championship | 1-1 | D |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Birmingham City (home)EFL Championship | 1-2 | L |
| 9 Sep 2026 | West Bromwich Albion (home)EFL Championship | 0-1 | L |
| 5 Sep 2026 | West Ham (away)EFL Championship | 0-3 | L |
| 1 Sep 2026 | Portsmouth (away)EFL Championship | 2-0 | W |
Wrexham: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Southampton (home)EFL Championship | 2-1 | W |
| 11 Sep 2026 | West Ham (away)EFL Championship | 0-6 | L |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Burnley (home)EFL Championship | 1-1 | D |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Swansea City (away)EFL Championship | 0-0 | D |
| 2 Sep 2026 | Millwall (away)EFL Championship | 3-0 | W |
Derby County vs Wrexham head to head
In their last two meetings in our data, Derby County won none, Wrexham won 1 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 4 January 2026, finished Derby County 1–2 Wrexham.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 4 Jan 2026 | Derby County – WrexhamEFL Championship | 1-2 |
| 27 Sep 2025 | Wrexham – Derby CountyEFL Championship | 1-1 |
The rest of the EFL Championship is on our Championship page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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