Primeira Liga
Famalicão vs Alverca prediction: Primeira Liga, Monday 12 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Famalicão
Alverca
- Famalicão
- 53%MegaPari 1.83
- Draw
- 27%MegaPari 3.62
- Alverca
- 20%MegaPari 4.34
- Under 3.5 goals77% · fair 1.301.24Bet
xG 1.5–0.8 · likeliest 1-0 (15%)
Famalicão host Alverca in Primeira Liga on Monday 12 October, kick-off 22:15 EAT. The match is played at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao (Vila Nova de Famalicao). Famalicão are 13th in the table with 7 points from 7 games; Alverca are 10th with 8.
Who will win Famalicão vs Alverca?
Famalicão are favourites, though not by much: 53% to win, 27% for the draw and 20% for Alverca. MegaPari's 1.83 on Famalicão is shorter than our fair price of 1.90: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
One market clears our thresholds for this match: under 3.5 goals (77%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Famalicão to win | 53% | 1.90 | 1.83 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.74 | 3.62 |
| Alverca to win | 20% | 4.88 | 4.34 |
| Famalicão or draw | 80% | 1.26 | 1.23 |
| Draw or Alverca | 47% | 2.12 | 2.00 |
| Famalicão or Alverca | 73% | 1.37 | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | 1.43 | 1.28 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 2.18 | 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54% | 1.85 | 1.79 |
| Under 3.5 goals Tip | 77% | 1.30 | 1.24 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 49% | 2.04 | 1.86 |
| Both teams to score: no | 51% | 1.97 | 1.84 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 22:36 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Famalicão vs Alverca
Expected goals are 1.5 for Famalicão and 0.8 for Alverca, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 46%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 49%.
Famalicão vs Alverca correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-0 at 15%, ahead of 1-1 (12%) and 2-0 (11%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 14.9% | 6.69 |
| 1-1 | 12.5% | 8.01 |
| 2-0 | 11.5% | 8.71 |
| 0-0 | 10.8% | 9.23 |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | 11.19 |
Form: Famalicão and Alverca in their last five
Famalicão have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +3. Alverca have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +0. The results cover every competition in our data.
Famalicão: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Nacional (away)Primeira Liga | 4-0 | W |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Sporting CP (home)Primeira Liga | 1-1 | D |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Estrela da Amadora (away)Primeira Liga | 2-2 | D |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Gil Vicente (home)Primeira Liga | 0-0 | D |
| 23 Aug 2026 | Santa Clara (away)Primeira Liga | 0-1 | L |
Alverca: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Rio Ave (home)Primeira Liga | 1-0 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Nacional (away)Primeira Liga | 3-1 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Braga (home)Primeira Liga | 1-2 | L |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Santa Clara (home)Primeira Liga | 1-1 | D |
| 22 Aug 2026 | Sporting CP (away)Primeira Liga | 1-3 | L |
Famalicão vs Alverca head to head
In their last two meetings in our data, Famalicão won 1, Alverca won 1 and none was drawn. The most recent, on 16 May 2026, finished Famalicão 1–0 Alverca.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 16 May 2026 | Famalicão – AlvercaPrimeira Liga | 1-0 |
| 4 Jan 2026 | Alverca – FamalicãoPrimeira Liga | 1-0 |
How the odds have moved
MegaPari's price on Famalicão has shortened from 1.83 to 1.83 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them.
| Bet | Opening odds | Latest odds |
|---|---|---|
| Famalicão to win | 1.83 | 1.83 ↓ |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.62 ↑ |
| Alverca to win | 4.32 | 4.34 ↑ |
| Both teams to score: yes | 1.85 | 1.86 ↑ |
| Both teams to score: no | 1.85 | 1.84 ↓ |
Prices from MegaPari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.
All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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