Eredivisie
Feyenoord vs AZ prediction: Eredivisie, Saturday 10 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Feyenoord host AZ in Eredivisie on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 19:45 EAT. The match is played at De Kuip (Rotterdam). Feyenoord are 2nd in the table with 17 points from 7 games; AZ are 1st with 19.
Our tips for this match
- Over 1.5 goals · 81% · Fair odds 1.24 · MegaPari 1.08
- Over 2.5 goals · 63% · Fair odds 1.59 · MegaPari 1.37
- Both teams to score: yes · 63% · Fair odds 1.60 · MegaPari 1.39
Who will win Feyenoord vs AZ?
Feyenoord are favourites, though not by much: 51% to win, 24% for the draw and 25% for AZ. MegaPari's 1.83 on Feyenoord is shorter than our fair price of 1.96: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (81%), over 2.5 goals (63%) and both teams to score: yes (63%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord to win | 51% | 1.96 | 1.83 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.18 | 3.82 |
| AZ to win | 25% | 3.97 | 4.08 |
| Feyenoord or draw | 75% | 1.34 | 1.24 |
| Draw or AZ | 49% | 2.04 | 1.98 |
| Feyenoord or AZ | 76% | 1.31 | 1.27 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 81% | 1.24 | 1.08 |
| Over 2.5 goals Tip | 63% | 1.59 | 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37% | 2.70 | 2.66 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 62% | 1.60 | 1.81 |
| Both teams to score: yes Tip | 63% | 1.60 | 1.39 |
| Both teams to score: no | 37% | 2.68 | 2.77 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 20:54 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Feyenoord vs AZ
Goals are expected: 1.9 for Feyenoord and 1.4 for AZ, 3.3 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 63%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 63%.
Feyenoord vs AZ correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 10%, ahead of 2-1 (9%) and 2-0 (7%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 10 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.2% | 9.84 |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | 10.64 |
| 2-0 | 6.8% | 14.62 |
| 1-0 | 6.7% | 14.88 |
| 1-2 | 6.7% | 14.90 |
Form: Feyenoord and AZ in their last five
Feyenoord have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +10. AZ have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +4. The results cover every competition in our data.
Feyenoord: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Utrecht (home)Eredivisie | 5-0 | W |
| 13 Sep 2026 | PEC Zwolle (away)Eredivisie | 7-0 | W |
| 9 Sep 2026 | Barcelona (away)UEFA Champions League | 1-5 | L |
| 5 Sep 2026 | NEC (away)Eredivisie | 3-1 | W |
| 30 Aug 2026 | ADO Den Haag (home)Eredivisie | 2-2 | D |
AZ: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Telstar (home)Eredivisie | 1-0 | W |
| 16 Sep 2026 | Sunderland (away)UEFA Europa League | 0-1 | L |
| 11 Sep 2026 | Willem II (home)Eredivisie | 1-1 | D |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Heerenveen (away)Eredivisie | 3-2 | W |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Go Ahead Eagles (home)Eredivisie | 5-2 | W |
Feyenoord vs AZ head to head
In their last six meetings in our data, Feyenoord won 4, AZ won none and 2 were drawn. The most recent, on 10 May 2026, finished Feyenoord 1–1 AZ.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 10 May 2026 | Feyenoord – AZEredivisie | 1-1 |
| 21 Sep 2025 | AZ – FeyenoordEredivisie | 3-3 |
| 5 Apr 2025 | AZ – FeyenoordEredivisie | 0-1 |
| 2 Nov 2024 | Feyenoord – AZEredivisie | 3-2 |
| 4 Feb 2024 | AZ – FeyenoordEredivisie | 0-1 |
| 12 Nov 2023 | Feyenoord – AZEredivisie | 1-0 |
All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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