Fortuna Sittard vs Twente prediction: Eredivisie, Saturday 10 October

Fortuna Sittard host Twente in Eredivisie on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 21:00 EAT. The match is played at Fortuna Sittard (Sittard). Fortuna Sittard are 6th in the table with 13 points from 7 games; Twente are 4th with 16.

Our tips for this match

• Twente to win · 61% · Fair odds 1.63 · MegaPari 1.43
• Draw or Twente · 82% · Fair odds 1.22 · MegaPari 1.11
• Over 1.5 goals · 80% · Fair odds 1.25 · MegaPari 1.06
• Over 2.5 goals · 63% · Fair odds 1.58 · MegaPari 1.33
• Both teams to score: yes · 59% · Fair odds 1.68 · MegaPari 1.50

Who will win Fortuna Sittard vs Twente?

The model makes Twente clear favourites at 61%, with the draw at 21% and Fortuna Sittard at 18%. MegaPari's 1.43 on Twente is shorter than our fair price of 1.63: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Five markets clear our thresholds for this match: Twente to win (61%), draw or Twente (82%), over 1.5 goals (80%), over 2.5 goals (63%) and both teams to score: yes (59%).

Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 20:54 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Fortuna Sittard vs Twente

Goals are expected: 1.2 for Fortuna Sittard and 2.0 for Twente, 3.2 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 63%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 59%.

Fortuna Sittard vs Twente correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 10%, ahead of 1-2 (10%) and 0-2 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 10 matches like this one.

Form: Fortuna Sittard and Twente in their last five

Fortuna Sittard have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -3. Twente are unbeaten in 5 (4 wins, 1 draw), with 12 goals scored and 5 conceded. The results cover every competition in our data.

Fortuna Sittard: last five matches

Twente: last five matches

Fortuna Sittard vs Twente head to head

In their last six meetings in our data, Fortuna Sittard won none, Twente won 5 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 21 March 2026, finished Fortuna Sittard 1–2 Twente.

All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.