Süper Lig
Galatasaray vs Kasimpasa prediction: Süper Lig, Friday 9 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Galatasaray host Kasimpasa in the Süper Lig on Friday 9 October, kick-off 20:00 EAT. The match is played at RAMS Park (İstanbul). Galatasaray are 2nd in the table with 13 points from 6 games; Kasimpasa are 8th with 10.
Our tips for this match
- Galatasaray to win · 75% · Fair odds 1.33 · MegaPari 1.26
- Galatasaray or draw · 91% · Fair odds 1.10 · MegaPari 1.04
- Over 1.5 goals · 82% · Fair odds 1.22 · MegaPari 1.10
- Over 2.5 goals · 63% · Fair odds 1.59 · MegaPari 1.42
Who will win Galatasaray vs Kasimpasa?
The model makes Galatasaray clear favourites at 75%, with the draw at 15% and Kasimpasa at 9%. MegaPari's 1.26 on Galatasaray is shorter than our fair price of 1.33: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Four markets clear our thresholds for this match: Galatasaray to win (75%), Galatasaray or draw (91%), over 1.5 goals (82%) and over 2.5 goals (63%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray to win Tip | 75% | 1.33 | 1.26 |
| Draw | 15% | 6.52 | 6.55 |
| Kasimpasa to win | 9% | 10.86 | 11.40 |
| Galatasaray or draw Tip | 91% | 1.10 | 1.04 |
| Draw or Kasimpasa | 25% | 4.07 | 4.06 |
| Galatasaray or Kasimpasa | 85% | 1.18 | 1.13 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 82% | 1.22 | 1.10 |
| Over 2.5 goals Tip | 63% | 1.59 | 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37% | 2.68 | 2.49 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 60% | 1.66 | 1.72 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | 1.93 | 1.85 |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | 2.08 | 1.85 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 20:54 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Galatasaray vs Kasimpasa
Goals are expected: 2.6 for Galatasaray and 0.9 for Kasimpasa, 3.4 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 63%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 52%.
Galatasaray vs Kasimpasa correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 2-0 at 11%, ahead of 3-0 (9%) and 2-1 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | 10.6% | 9.43 |
| 3-0 | 9.2% | 10.91 |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | 10.92 |
| 3-1 | 7.9% | 12.64 |
| 1-0 | 7.9% | 12.66 |
Form: Galatasaray and Kasimpasa in their last five
Galatasaray have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -3. Kasimpasa are unbeaten in 5 (2 wins, 3 draws), with 6 goals scored and 4 conceded. The results cover every competition in our data.
Galatasaray: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Trabzonspor (away)Süper Lig | 0-4 | L |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Kocaelispor (home)Süper Lig | 1-0 | W |
| 9 Sep 2026 | Sporting CP (away)UEFA Champions League | 1-3 | L |
| 4 Sep 2026 | İstanbul Başakşehir (away)Süper Lig | 3-2 | W |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Goztepe (home)Süper Lig | 3-2 | W |
Kasimpasa: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2026 | Konyaspor (home)Süper Lig | 0-0 | D |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Genclerbirligi (away)Süper Lig | 2-1 | W |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Amedspor (home)Süper Lig | 2-2 | D |
| 30 Aug 2026 | İstanbul Başakşehir (away)Süper Lig | 1-1 | D |
| 22 Aug 2026 | Arca Corum (away)Süper Lig | 1-0 | W |
Galatasaray vs Kasimpasa head to head
In their last four meetings in our data, Galatasaray won 1, Kasimpasa won 1 and 2 were drawn. The most recent, on 17 May 2026, finished Kasimpasa 1–0 Galatasaray.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 17 May 2026 | Kasimpasa – GalatasaraySüper Lig | 1-0 |
| 21 Dec 2025 | Galatasaray – KasimpasaSüper Lig | 3-0 |
| 2 Mar 2025 | Kasimpasa – GalatasaraySüper Lig | 3-3 |
| 28 Sep 2024 | Galatasaray – KasimpasaSüper Lig | 3-3 |
How the odds have moved
MegaPari's price on Galatasaray has drifted from 1.24 to 1.26 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.38 to 1.42, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.
| Bet | Opening odds | Latest odds |
|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray to win | 1.24 | 1.26 ↑ |
| Draw | 6.98 | 6.55 ↓ |
| Kasimpasa to win | 12.10 | 11.40 ↓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.38 | 1.42 ↑ |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.62 | 2.49 ↓ |
| Both teams to score: yes | 1.85 | 1.85 |
| Both teams to score: no | 1.86 | 1.85 ↓ |
Prices from MegaPari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.
All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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