Scottish Premiership
Heart of Midlothian vs St. Mirren prediction: Scottish Premiership, Saturday 10 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Heart of Midlothian host St. Mirren in the Scottish Premiership on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 17:00 EAT. The match is played at Tynecastle (Edinburgh). Heart of Midlothian are 3rd in the table with 13 points from 7 games; St. Mirren are 5th with 10.
Who will win Heart of Midlothian vs St. Mirren?
The model makes Heart of Midlothian clear favourites at 64%, with the draw at 21% and St. Mirren at 15%. MegaPari's 1.45 on Heart of Midlothian is shorter than our fair price of 1.57: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: Heart of Midlothian to win (64%) and Heart of Midlothian or draw (85%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heart of Midlothian to win Tip | 64% | 1.57 | 1.45 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.67 | 4.65 |
| St. Mirren to win | 15% | 6.72 | 6.06 |
| Heart of Midlothian or draw Tip | 85% | 1.17 | 1.10 |
| Draw or St. Mirren | 36% | 2.75 | 2.64 |
| Heart of Midlothian or St. Mirren | 79% | 1.27 | 1.16 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 1.35 | 1.11 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 1.77 | 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44% | 2.29 | 2.41 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 72% | 1.39 | 1.61 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | 1.87 | 1.62 |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | 2.15 | 2.16 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 22:36 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Heart of Midlothian vs St. Mirren
Expected goals are 1.9 for Heart of Midlothian and 0.8 for St. Mirren, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 56%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 54%.
Heart of Midlothian vs St. Mirren correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-0 at 13%, ahead of 2-0 (13%) and 1-1 (11%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 13.2% | 7.59 |
| 2-0 | 12.6% | 7.95 |
| 1-1 | 10.7% | 9.31 |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | 10.45 |
| 3-0 | 7.8% | 12.87 |
Form: Heart of Midlothian and St. Mirren in their last five
Heart of Midlothian have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +3. St. Mirren have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -4. The results cover every competition in our data.
Heart of Midlothian: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Kilmarnock (away)Scottish Premiership | 1-1 | D |
| 15 Sep 2026 | Falkirk (away)Scottish Premiership | 1-2 | L |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Dundee (home)Scottish Premiership | 2-1 | W |
| 3 Sep 2026 | Hibernian (away)Scottish Premiership | 3-1 | W |
| 29 Aug 2026 | St. Johnstone (home)Scottish Premiership | 2-1 | W |
St. Mirren: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Dundee United (home)Scottish Premiership | 0-3 | L |
| 9 Sep 2026 | Rangers (away)Scottish Premiership | 0-1 | L |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Celtic (home)Scottish Premiership | 1-2 | L |
| 2 Sep 2026 | Kilmarnock (away)Scottish Premiership | 1-0 | W |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Motherwell (home)Scottish Premiership | 3-3 | D |
Heart of Midlothian vs St. Mirren head to head
In their last six meetings in our data, Heart of Midlothian won 3, St. Mirren won 2 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 3 February 2026, finished St. Mirren 1–0 Heart of Midlothian.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 3 Feb 2026 | St. Mirren – Heart of MidlothianScottish Premiership | 1-0 |
| 14 Jan 2026 | Heart of Midlothian – St. MirrenScottish Premiership | 2-0 |
| 29 Oct 2025 | St. Mirren – Heart of MidlothianScottish Premiership | 2-2 |
| 26 Feb 2025 | Heart of Midlothian – St. MirrenScottish Premiership | 3-1 |
| 19 Oct 2024 | Heart of Midlothian – St. MirrenScottish Premiership | 4-0 |
| 21 Sep 2024 | St. Mirren – Heart of MidlothianScottish Premiership | 2-1 |
All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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