Uganda Premier League
Lugazi vs BUL prediction: Uganda Premier League, Tuesday 13 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Lugazi host BUL in the Uganda Premier League on Tuesday 13 October, kick-off 16:00 EAT. Lugazi are 7th in the table with 7 points from 5 games; BUL are 1st with 12.
Our tips for this match
- Under 3.5 goals · 82% · Fair odds 1.21
Who will win Lugazi vs BUL?
There is little to separate the sides: Lugazi 24%, the draw 32%, BUL 43%. At 32% the draw is a real option, more likely than in most matches.
One market clears our thresholds for this match: under 3.5 goals (82%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Lugazi to win | 24% | 4.08 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.10 |
| BUL to win | 43% | 2.31 |
| Lugazi or draw | 57% | 1.76 |
| Draw or BUL | 76% | 1.32 |
| Lugazi or BUL | 68% | 1.48 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65% | 1.55 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 2.61 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 62% | 1.62 |
| Under 3.5 goals Tip | 82% | 1.21 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 46% | 2.19 |
| Both teams to score: no | 54% | 1.84 |
Goals in Lugazi vs BUL
The numbers point to a tight game: expected goals of 0.8 and 1.1, and under 2.5 goals at 62%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 46%.
Lugazi vs BUL correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 0-1 at 16%, ahead of 0-0 (16%) and 1-1 (14%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 6 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 16.4% | 6.09 |
| 0-0 | 15.6% | 6.40 |
| 1-1 | 13.5% | 7.39 |
| 1-0 | 11.1% | 9.02 |
| 0-2 | 9.5% | 10.53 |
Form: Lugazi and BUL in their last five
Lugazi have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -2. BUL have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +4. The results cover every competition in our data.
Lugazi: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Oct 2026 | Maroons (away)Uganda Premier League | 0-0 | D |
| 16 Sep 2026 | Police (home)Uganda Premier League | 0-2 | L |
| 9 Sep 2026 | Entebbe UPPC (away)Uganda Premier League | 1-0 | W |
| 1 Sep 2026 | NEC (away)Uganda Premier League | 1-3 | L |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Kigezi Homeboyz (home)Uganda Premier League | 2-1 | W |
BUL: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Sep 2026 | Blacks Power (home)Uganda Premier League | 2-1 | W |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Ntugasaze (home)Uganda Premier League | 4-1 | W |
| 3 Sep 2026 | Kataka (away)Uganda Premier League | 4-1 | W |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Express (home)Uganda Premier League | 1-0 | W |
| 23 May 2026 | Entebbe UPPC (away)Uganda Premier League | 0-4 | L |
Lugazi vs BUL head to head
In their last four meetings in our data, Lugazi won 1, BUL won 2 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 12 May 2026, finished BUL 0–0 Lugazi.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 12 May 2026 | BUL – LugaziUganda Premier League | 0-0 |
| 27 Jan 2026 | Lugazi – BULUganda Premier League | 2-1 |
| 29 Apr 2025 | BUL – LugaziUganda Premier League | 4-0 |
| 3 Jan 2025 | Lugazi – BULUganda Premier League | 1-2 |
The rest of the Uganda Premier League is on our Uganda Premier League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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