UEFA Champions League
Man City vs PSG prediction: UEFA Champions League, Wednesday 14 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Man City host PSG in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday 14 October, kick-off 22:00 EAT. The match is played at Etihad (Manchester). Man City are 8th in the table with 3 points from 1 games; PSG are 1st with 3.
Who will win Man City vs PSG?
Man City are favourites, though not by much: 48% to win, 24% for the draw and 28% for PSG. MegaPari pays 2.34 on Man City, more than our fair price of 2.08.
Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (80%), over 2.5 goals (63%) and both teams to score: yes (63%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Man City to win | 48% | 2.08 | 2.34 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.23 | 3.96 |
| PSG to win | 28% | 3.53 | 2.97 |
| Man City or draw | 72% | 1.40 | 1.45 |
| Draw or PSG | 52% | 1.92 | 1.67 |
| Man City or PSG | 76% | 1.31 | 1.29 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 80% | 1.24 | 1.07 |
| Over 2.5 goals Tip | 63% | 1.60 | 1.39 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37% | 2.68 | 2.72 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 63% | 1.59 | 1.81 |
| Both teams to score: yes Tip | 63% | 1.59 | 1.36 |
| Both teams to score: no | 37% | 2.70 | 2.93 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 8 October 2026, 00:41 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Man City vs PSG
Goals are expected: 2.0 for Man City and 1.3 for PSG, 3.2 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 63%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 63%.
Man City vs PSG correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 10%, ahead of 2-1 (10%) and 2-0 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 10 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.1% | 9.89 |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | 10.33 |
| 2-0 | 7.7% | 13.00 |
| 1-0 | 7.3% | 13.62 |
| 3-1 | 6.4% | 15.58 |
Form: Man City and PSG in their last five
Man City have won all of their last 5, scoring 13 and conceding 4. PSG have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +6. The results cover every competition in our data.
Man City: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Sunderland (home)Premier League | 5-3 | W |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Man United (away)Premier League | 1-0 | W |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Porto (away)UEFA Champions League | 2-0 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Coventry City (home)Premier League | 1-0 | W |
| 28 Aug 2026 | Crystal Palace (away)Premier League | 4-1 | W |
PSG: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Marseille (away)Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Brest (away)Ligue 1 | 1-0 | W |
| 9 Sep 2026 | Slovan Bratislava (home)UEFA Champions League | 6-1 | W |
| 4 Sep 2026 | Monaco (home)Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| 28 Aug 2026 | Lille (away)Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
Man City vs PSG head to head
The two have met once in our data: on 22 January 2025, PSG 4–2 Man City.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 22 Jan 2025 | PSG – Man CityUEFA Champions League | 4-2 |
The rest of the UEFA Champions League is on our Champions League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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