Primeira Liga
Marítimo vs Porto prediction: Primeira Liga, Saturday 10 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Marítimo host Porto in Primeira Liga on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 20:00 EAT. The match is played at Estádio dos Barreiros (Funchal). Marítimo are 11th in the table with 8 points from 7 games; Porto are 1st with 21.
Our tips for this match
- Porto to win · 67% · Fair odds 1.48 · MegaPari 1.30
- Draw or Porto · 88% · Fair odds 1.14 · MegaPari 1.05
Who will win Marítimo vs Porto?
The model makes Porto clear favourites at 67%, with the draw at 20% and Marítimo at 12%. MegaPari's 1.30 on Porto is shorter than our fair price of 1.48: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: Porto to win (67%) and draw or Porto (88%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marítimo to win | 12% | 8.17 | 10.00 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.91 | 5.35 |
| Porto to win Tip | 67% | 1.48 | 1.30 |
| Marítimo or draw | 33% | 3.07 | 3.50 |
| Draw or Porto Tip | 88% | 1.14 | 1.05 |
| Marítimo or Porto | 80% | 1.26 | 1.17 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 1.35 | 1.19 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 1.92 | 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48% | 2.09 | 2.05 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 72% | 1.39 | 1.34 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 47% | 2.13 | 2.13 |
| Both teams to score: no | 53% | 1.88 | 1.64 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 20:54 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Marítimo vs Porto
Expected goals are 0.8 for Marítimo and 1.8 for Porto, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 52%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 47%.
Marítimo vs Porto correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 0-1 at 13%, ahead of 0-2 (12%) and 1-1 (11%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 12.9% | 7.74 |
| 0-2 | 12.3% | 8.15 |
| 1-1 | 10.9% | 9.19 |
| 1-2 | 9.6% | 10.40 |
| 0-0 | 7.7% | 13.04 |
Form: Marítimo and Porto in their last five
Marítimo have not won in 5 (2 draws, 3 defeats) and scored 5 in that run. Porto have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +7. The results cover every competition in our data.
Marítimo: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Gil Vicente (away)Primeira Liga | 1-1 | D |
| 14 Sep 2026 | Moreirense (away)Primeira Liga | 1-3 | L |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Benfica (home)Primeira Liga | 0-3 | L |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Arouca (away)Primeira Liga | 1-2 | L |
| 22 Aug 2026 | Academico de Viseu (home)Primeira Liga | 2-2 | D |
Porto: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Benfica (home)Primeira Liga | 3-1 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Casa Pia (away)Primeira Liga | 4-1 | W |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Man City (home)UEFA Champions League | 0-2 | L |
| 4 Sep 2026 | Moreirense (home)Primeira Liga | 2-1 | W |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Academico de Viseu (away)Primeira Liga | 3-0 | W |
Marítimo vs Porto head to head
Marítimo and Porto have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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