Tanzanian Premier League
Mbeya City vs Kagera Sugar prediction: Tanzanian Premier League, Friday 9 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Mbeya City host Kagera Sugar in the Tanzanian Premier League on Friday 9 October, kick-off 16:15 EAT. Mbeya City are 6th in the table with 10 points from 6 games; Kagera Sugar are 15th with 2.
Our tips for this match
- Mbeya City or draw · 81% · Fair odds 1.23
- Under 3.5 goals · 78% · Fair odds 1.28
Who will win Mbeya City vs Kagera Sugar?
Mbeya City are favourites, though not by much: 53% to win, 28% for the draw and 19% for Kagera Sugar.
Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: Mbeya City or draw (81%) and under 3.5 goals (78%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Mbeya City to win | 53% | 1.89 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.57 |
| Kagera Sugar to win | 19% | 5.27 |
| Mbeya City or draw Tip | 81% | 1.23 |
| Draw or Kagera Sugar | 47% | 2.13 |
| Mbeya City or Kagera Sugar | 72% | 1.39 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | 1.45 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 2.30 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 57% | 1.77 |
| Under 3.5 goals Tip | 78% | 1.28 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 48% | 2.10 |
| Both teams to score: no | 52% | 1.91 |
Goals in Mbeya City vs Kagera Sugar
Expected goals are 1.4 for Mbeya City and 0.8 for Kagera Sugar, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 43%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 48%.
Mbeya City vs Kagera Sugar correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-0 at 16%, ahead of 1-1 (13%) and 0-0 (12%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 6 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 15.7% | 6.36 |
| 1-1 | 12.6% | 7.96 |
| 0-0 | 11.8% | 8.48 |
| 2-0 | 11.6% | 8.60 |
| 2-1 | 8.7% | 11.53 |
Form: Mbeya City and Kagera Sugar in their last five
Mbeya City have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +3. Kagera Sugar have not won in 5 (2 draws, 3 defeats) and scored 5 in that run. The results cover every competition in our data.
Mbeya City: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep 2026 | Polisi Tanzania (away)Tanzanian Premier League | 0-2 | L |
| 4 Sep 2026 | TRA United (away)Tanzanian Premier League | 0-0 | D |
| 28 Aug 2026 | Fountain Gate (away)Tanzanian Premier League | 2-0 | W |
| 23 Aug 2026 | Mashujaa (home)Tanzanian Premier League | 2-1 | W |
| 19 Aug 2026 | Dodoma Jiji (home)Tanzanian Premier League | 2-0 | W |
Kagera Sugar: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Sep 2026 | Fountain Gate (home)Tanzanian Premier League | 1-1 | D |
| 31 Aug 2026 | Azam (home)Tanzanian Premier League | 0-2 | L |
| 27 Aug 2026 | Mashujaa (away)Tanzanian Premier League | 1-2 | L |
| 22 Aug 2026 | Geita Gold (away)Tanzanian Premier League | 2-6 | L |
| 19 Aug 2026 | Singida BS (home)Tanzanian Premier League | 1-1 | D |
Mbeya City vs Kagera Sugar head to head
Mbeya City and Kagera Sugar have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
The rest of the Tanzanian Premier League is on our NBC Premier League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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