Belgian Pro League
Mechelen vs Sint-Truidense prediction: Belgian Pro League, Sunday 11 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Mechelen host Sint-Truidense in the Belgian Pro League on Sunday 11 October, kick-off 20:15 EAT. The match is played at AFAS Achter de Kazerne (Mechelen). Mechelen are 18th in the table with 3 points from 7 games; Sint-Truidense are 11th with 8.
Our tips for this match
No tip: no market clears our thresholds for this match.
Who will win Mechelen vs Sint-Truidense?
There is little to separate the sides: Mechelen 30%, the draw 25%, Sint-Truidense 45%. MegaPari's 2.10 on Sint-Truidense is shorter than our fair price of 2.24: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mechelen to win | 30% | 3.34 | 3.24 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.94 | 3.72 |
| Sint-Truidense to win | 45% | 2.24 | 2.10 |
| Mechelen or draw | 55% | 1.81 | 1.73 |
| Draw or Sint-Truidense | 70% | 1.43 | 1.34 |
| Mechelen or Sint-Truidense | 75% | 1.34 | 1.27 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 1.29 | 1.16 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 1.80 | 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44% | 2.26 | 2.19 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 68% | 1.48 | 1.41 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | 1.73 | 1.55 |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | 2.38 | 2.30 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 20:54 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Mechelen vs Sint-Truidense
Expected goals are 1.3 for Mechelen and 1.6 for Sint-Truidense, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 56%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 58%.
Mechelen vs Sint-Truidense correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 1-2 (9%) and 0-1 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.8% | 8.47 |
| 1-2 | 9.2% | 10.91 |
| 0-1 | 8.2% | 12.17 |
| 2-1 | 7.4% | 13.44 |
| 0-2 | 7.0% | 14.29 |
Form: Mechelen and Sint-Truidense in their last five
Mechelen have not won in 5 (2 draws, 3 defeats) and scored 2 in that run. Sint-Truidense have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +0. The results cover every competition in our data.
Mechelen: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Lommel SK (away)Belgian Pro League | 0-0 | D |
| 11 Sep 2026 | Anderlecht (home)Belgian Pro League | 0-1 | L |
| 5 Sep 2026 | K.V.C. Westerlo (home)Belgian Pro League | 0-4 | L |
| 29 Aug 2026 | RAAL La Louviere (away)Belgian Pro League | 2-2 | D |
| 22 Aug 2026 | R. Charleroi (away)Belgian Pro League | 0-2 | L |
Sint-Truidense: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | K.V.C. Westerlo (home)Belgian Pro League | 0-2 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | S.K. Beveren (away)Belgian Pro League | 0-2 | L |
| 5 Sep 2026 | RAAL La Louviere (home)Belgian Pro League | 4-0 | W |
| 2 Sep 2026 | Union Saint-Gilloise (home)Belgian Pro League | 0-3 | L |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Antwerp (away)Belgian Pro League | 4-1 | W |
Mechelen vs Sint-Truidense head to head
In their last six meetings in our data, Mechelen won none, Sint-Truidense won 5 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 24 May 2026, finished Sint-Truidense 3–0 Mechelen.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 24 May 2026 | Sint-Truidense – MechelenBelgian Pro League | 3-0 |
| 26 Apr 2026 | Mechelen – Sint-TruidenseBelgian Pro League | 1-4 |
| 21 Dec 2025 | Sint-Truidense – MechelenBelgian Pro League | 1-0 |
| 4 Oct 2025 | Mechelen – Sint-TruidenseBelgian Pro League | 1-3 |
| 21 Feb 2025 | Mechelen – Sint-TruidenseBelgian Pro League | 1-1 |
| 8 Nov 2024 | Sint-Truidense – MechelenBelgian Pro League | 2-1 |
All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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