EFL Championship
Millwall vs Swansea City prediction: EFL Championship, Tuesday 13 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Millwall host Swansea City in the EFL Championship on Tuesday 13 October, kick-off 21:45 EAT.
Our tips for this match
No tip: no market clears our thresholds for this match.
Who will win Millwall vs Swansea City?
There is little to separate the sides: Millwall 41%, the draw 28%, Swansea City 30%. MegaPari's 2.36 on Millwall sits right on our fair price of 2.41.
No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Millwall to win | 41% | 2.41 | 2.36 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.55 | 3.30 |
| Swansea City to win | 30% | 3.29 | 2.87 |
| Millwall or draw | 70% | 1.44 | – |
| Draw or Swansea City | 59% | 1.71 | – |
| Millwall or Swansea City | 72% | 1.39 | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | 1.39 | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 2.11 | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52% | 1.90 | – |
| Under 3.5 goals | 75% | 1.34 | – |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | 1.94 | – |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | 2.07 | – |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 20:54 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Millwall vs Swansea City
Expected goals are 1.4 for Millwall and 1.1 for Swansea City, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 48%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 52%.
Millwall vs Swansea City correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 1-0 (12%) and 0-0 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.3% | 7.52 |
| 1-0 | 11.6% | 8.63 |
| 0-0 | 9.3% | 10.70 |
| 0-1 | 8.8% | 11.31 |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | 11.43 |
Form: Millwall and Swansea City in their last five
Millwall have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. Swansea City have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +3. The results cover every competition in our data.
Millwall: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | West Ham (home)EFL Championship | 2-2 | D |
| 15 Sep 2026 | Middlesbrough (away)EFL Championship | 2-2 | D |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Blackburn Rovers (away)EFL Championship | 1-3 | L |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Bolton Wanderers (home)EFL Championship | 4-0 | W |
| 2 Sep 2026 | Wrexham (home)EFL Championship | 0-3 | L |
Swansea City: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Lincoln City (away)EFL Championship | 2-1 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Burnley (home)EFL Championship | 3-1 | W |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Southampton (away)EFL Championship | 1-3 | L |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Wrexham (home)EFL Championship | 0-0 | D |
| 1 Sep 2026 | Watford (home)EFL Championship | 2-0 | W |
Millwall vs Swansea City head to head
In their last five meetings in our data, Millwall won 4, Swansea City won none and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 4 January 2026, finished Millwall 2–1 Swansea City.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 4 Jan 2026 | Millwall – Swansea CityEFL Championship | 2-1 |
| 27 Sep 2025 | Swansea City – MillwallEFL Championship | 1-1 |
| 26 Apr 2025 | Millwall – Swansea CityEFL Championship | 1-0 |
| 26 Oct 2024 | Swansea City – MillwallEFL Championship | 0-1 |
| 4 May 2024 | Swansea City – MillwallEFL Championship | 0-1 |
The rest of the EFL Championship is on our Championship page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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