Moreirense vs Gil Vicente prediction: Primeira Liga, Friday 9 October

Moreirense host Gil Vicente in Primeira Liga on Friday 9 October, kick-off 20:45 EAT. The match is played at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas (Moreira de Conegos). Moreirense are 12th in the table with 8 points from 7 games; Gil Vicente are 9th with 8.

Our tips for this match

• Under 3.5 goals · 77% · Fair odds 1.30 · MegaPari 1.15

Who will win Moreirense vs Gil Vicente?

There is little to separate the sides: Moreirense 31%, the draw 29%, Gil Vicente 40%. At 29% the draw is a real option, more likely than in most matches. MegaPari's 2.26 on Gil Vicente is shorter than our fair price of 2.50: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

One market clears our thresholds for this match: under 3.5 goals (77%).

Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 20:54 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Moreirense vs Gil Vicente

Expected goals are 1.1 for Moreirense and 1.2 for Gil Vicente, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 43%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 49%.

Moreirense vs Gil Vicente correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 14%, ahead of 0-1 (12%) and 0-0 (11%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.

Form: Moreirense and Gil Vicente in their last five

Moreirense have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -2. Gil Vicente have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. The results cover every competition in our data.

Moreirense: last five matches

Gil Vicente: last five matches

Moreirense vs Gil Vicente head to head

In their last six meetings in our data, Moreirense won 2, Gil Vicente won 3 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 7 February 2026, finished Moreirense 1–2 Gil Vicente.

All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.