Scottish Premiership
Motherwell vs Celtic prediction: Scottish Premiership, Sunday 11 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Motherwell host Celtic in the Scottish Premiership on Sunday 11 October, kick-off 14:00 EAT. The match is played at Fir Park (Motherwell). Motherwell are 9th in the table with 8 points from 7 games; Celtic are 1st with 18.
Our tips for this match
- Both teams to score: yes · 59% · Fair odds 1.69 · MegaPari 1.48
Who will win Motherwell vs Celtic?
Celtic are favourites, though not by much: 53% to win, 23% for the draw and 24% for Motherwell. MegaPari's 1.59 on Celtic is shorter than our fair price of 1.88: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
One market clears our thresholds for this match: both teams to score: yes (59%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell to win | 24% | 4.21 | 4.68 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.33 | 4.40 |
| Celtic to win | 53% | 1.88 | 1.59 |
| Motherwell or draw | 47% | 2.14 | 2.29 |
| Draw or Celtic | 76% | 1.31 | 1.16 |
| Motherwell or Celtic | 77% | 1.30 | 1.18 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 1.29 | 1.08 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 1.67 | 1.39 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40% | 2.50 | 2.59 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 68% | 1.48 | 1.68 |
| Both teams to score: yes Tip | 59% | 1.69 | 1.48 |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | 2.45 | 2.47 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 20:54 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Motherwell vs Celtic
Goals are expected: 1.2 for Motherwell and 1.7 for Celtic, 2.9 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 60%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 59%.
Motherwell vs Celtic correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 1-2 (9%) and 0-1 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.7% | 8.57 |
| 1-2 | 9.5% | 10.57 |
| 0-1 | 8.7% | 11.55 |
| 0-2 | 7.7% | 13.02 |
| 2-1 | 6.9% | 14.45 |
Form: Motherwell and Celtic in their last five
Motherwell have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -3. Celtic have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +2. The results cover every competition in our data.
Motherwell: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Dundee (away)Scottish Premiership | 1-2 | L |
| 15 Sep 2026 | Aberdeen (home)Scottish Premiership | 0-4 | L |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Rangers (away)Scottish Premiership | 0-1 | L |
| 2 Sep 2026 | Dundee United (home)Scottish Premiership | 3-0 | W |
| 30 Aug 2026 | St. Mirren (away)Scottish Premiership | 3-3 | D |
Celtic: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Rangers (home)Scottish Premiership | 0-1 | L |
| 17 Sep 2026 | Ferencvarosi (home)UEFA Europa League | 1-3 | L |
| 9 Sep 2026 | St. Johnstone (away)Scottish Premiership | 1-0 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | St. Mirren (away)Scottish Premiership | 2-1 | W |
| 2 Sep 2026 | Aberdeen (home)Scottish Premiership | 3-0 | W |
Motherwell vs Celtic head to head
In their last six meetings in our data, Motherwell won 1, Celtic won 5 and none was drawn. The most recent, on 13 May 2026, finished Motherwell 2–3 Celtic.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 13 May 2026 | Motherwell – CelticScottish Premiership | 2-3 |
| 14 Mar 2026 | Celtic – MotherwellScottish Premiership | 3-1 |
| 30 Dec 2025 | Motherwell – CelticScottish Premiership | 2-0 |
| 5 Oct 2025 | Celtic – MotherwellScottish Premiership | 3-2 |
| 2 Feb 2025 | Motherwell – CelticScottish Premiership | 1-3 |
| 26 Dec 2024 | Celtic – MotherwellScottish Premiership | 4-0 |
All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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