EFL Championship
Norwich City vs Southampton prediction: EFL Championship, Wednesday 14 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Norwich City
Southampton
- Norwich City
- 39%MegaPari 2.24
- Draw
- 24%MegaPari 3.65
- Southampton
- 37%MegaPari 2.82
- Over 1.5 goals82% · fair 1.22
- Over 2.5 goals61% · fair 1.63
- Both teams to score: yes60% · fair 1.66
xG 1.6–1.8 · likeliest 1-1 (10%)
Norwich City host Southampton in the EFL Championship on Wednesday 14 October, kick-off 21:45 EAT.
Who will win Norwich City vs Southampton?
There is little to separate the sides: Norwich City 39%, the draw 24%, Southampton 37%. MegaPari's 2.24 on Norwich City is shorter than our fair price of 2.60: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (82%), over 2.5 goals (61%) and both teams to score: yes (60%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Norwich City to win | 39% | 2.60 | 2.24 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.10 | 3.65 |
| Southampton to win | 37% | 2.69 | 2.82 |
| Norwich City or draw | 63% | 1.59 | – |
| Draw or Southampton | 61% | 1.63 | – |
| Norwich City or Southampton | 76% | 1.32 | – |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 82% | 1.22 | – |
| Over 2.5 goals Tip | 61% | 1.63 | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39% | 2.59 | – |
| Under 3.5 goals | 61% | 1.65 | – |
| Both teams to score: yes Tip | 60% | 1.66 | – |
| Both teams to score: no | 40% | 2.51 | – |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 8 October 2026, 00:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Norwich City vs Southampton
Goals are expected: 1.6 for Norwich City and 1.8 for Southampton, 3.4 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 61%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 60%.
Norwich City vs Southampton correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 10%, ahead of 1-2 (8%) and 2-1 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 10 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 9.9% | 10.07 |
| 1-2 | 8.5% | 11.78 |
| 2-1 | 7.8% | 12.76 |
| 2-2 | 7.0% | 14.35 |
| 0-1 | 5.4% | 18.38 |
Form: Norwich City and Southampton in their last five
Norwich City have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +0. Southampton have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +4. The results cover every competition in our data.
Norwich City: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Bolton Wanderers (home)EFL Championship | 3-4 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Middlesbrough (away)EFL Championship | 3-4 | L |
| 9 Sep 2026 | Birmingham City (home)EFL Championship | 2-1 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Sheffield United (away)EFL Championship | 3-1 | W |
| 1 Sep 2026 | Stoke City (away)EFL Championship | 0-1 | L |
Southampton: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Wrexham (away)EFL Championship | 1-2 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Bristol City (home)EFL Championship | 4-1 | W |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Swansea City (home)EFL Championship | 3-1 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Lincoln City (away)EFL Championship | 1-1 | D |
| 1 Sep 2026 | Birmingham City (away)EFL Championship | 1-1 | D |
Norwich City vs Southampton head to head
In their last three meetings in our data, Norwich City won 1, Southampton won 1 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 18 March 2026, finished Southampton 1–0 Norwich City.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 18 Mar 2026 | Southampton – Norwich CityEFL Championship | 1-0 |
| 13 Dec 2025 | Norwich City – SouthamptonEFL Championship | 2-1 |
| 1 Jan 2024 | Norwich City – SouthamptonEFL Championship | 1-1 |
The rest of the EFL Championship is on our Championship page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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