PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur prediction: Eredivisie, Sunday 11 October

PEC Zwolle host Cambuur in Eredivisie on Sunday 11 October, kick-off 15:30 EAT. The match is played at MAC³PARK (Zwolle). PEC Zwolle are 16th in the table with 4 points from 7 games; Cambuur are 14th with 5.

Our tips for this match

• Over 1.5 goals · 79% · Fair odds 1.27 · MegaPari 1.10
• Both teams to score: yes · 61% · Fair odds 1.65 · MegaPari 1.44

Who will win PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur?

PEC Zwolle are favourites, though not by much: 46% to win, 25% for the draw and 29% for Cambuur. MegaPari's 1.97 on PEC Zwolle is shorter than our fair price of 2.15: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (79%) and both teams to score: yes (61%).

Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 20:54 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur

Goals are expected: 1.7 for PEC Zwolle and 1.4 for Cambuur, 3.0 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 60%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 61%.

PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 2-1 (9%) and 1-0 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.

Form: PEC Zwolle and Cambuur in their last five

PEC Zwolle have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -10. Cambuur have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -3. The results cover every competition in our data.

PEC Zwolle: last five matches

Cambuur: last five matches

PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur head to head

PEC Zwolle and Cambuur have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.

How the odds have moved

MegaPari's price on PEC Zwolle has drifted from 1.91 to 1.97 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.44 to 1.44, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.

Prices from MegaPari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.