Uganda Premier League
Police vs Villa prediction: Uganda Premier League, Wednesday 14 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Police host Villa in the Uganda Premier League on Wednesday 14 October, kick-off 16:00 EAT. Police are 5th in the table with 7 points from 4 games; Villa are 2nd with 11.
Our tips for this match
- Under 3.5 goals · 81% · Fair odds 1.24
Who will win Police vs Villa?
There is little to separate the sides: Police 26%, the draw 31%, Villa 42%. At 31% the draw is a real option, more likely than in most matches.
One market clears our thresholds for this match: under 3.5 goals (81%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Police to win | 26% | 3.78 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.18 |
| Villa to win | 42% | 2.37 |
| Police or draw | 58% | 1.73 |
| Draw or Villa | 74% | 1.36 |
| Police or Villa | 69% | 1.46 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% | 1.51 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 2.48 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 60% | 1.68 |
| Under 3.5 goals Tip | 81% | 1.24 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 47% | 2.12 |
| Both teams to score: no | 53% | 1.89 |
Goals in Police vs Villa
The numbers point to a tight game: expected goals of 0.8 and 1.1, and under 2.5 goals at 60%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 47%.
Police vs Villa correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 0-1 at 15%, ahead of 0-0 (14%) and 1-1 (14%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 15.0% | 6.66 |
| 0-0 | 14.0% | 7.12 |
| 1-1 | 13.8% | 7.27 |
| 1-0 | 11.0% | 9.12 |
| 0-2 | 8.9% | 11.17 |
Form: Police and Villa in their last five
Police have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +2. Villa are unbeaten in 5 (3 wins, 2 draws), with 7 goals scored and 1 conceded. The results cover every competition in our data.
Police: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Sep 2026 | Lugazi (away)Uganda Premier League | 2-0 | W |
| 10 Sep 2026 | UPDF (home)Uganda Premier League | 0-0 | D |
| 2 Sep 2026 | Blacks Power (away)Uganda Premier League | 0-1 | L |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Mbarara City (home)Uganda Premier League | 1-0 | W |
| 23 May 2026 | Kitara (away)Uganda Premier League | 2-2 | D |
Villa: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Oct 2026 | Kataka (away)Uganda Premier League | 0-0 | D |
| 15 Sep 2026 | Kigezi Homeboyz (home)Uganda Premier League | 3-0 | W |
| 9 Sep 2026 | Express (home)Uganda Premier League | 2-0 | W |
| 4 Sep 2026 | URA (away)Uganda Premier League | 1-0 | W |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Kitara (home)Uganda Premier League | 1-1 | D |
Police vs Villa head to head
In their last four meetings in our data, Police won 1, Villa won 2 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 10 March 2026, finished Police 1–0 Villa.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 10 Mar 2026 | Police – VillaUganda Premier League | 1-0 |
| 24 Oct 2025 | Villa – PoliceUganda Premier League | 2-1 |
| 11 May 2025 | Police – VillaUganda Premier League | 1-3 |
| 13 Dec 2024 | Villa – PoliceUganda Premier League | 1-1 |
The rest of the Uganda Premier League is on our Uganda Premier League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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