Eredivisie
PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen prediction: Eredivisie, Friday 9 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
PSV Eindhoven host Heerenveen in Eredivisie on Friday 9 October, kick-off 21:00 EAT. The match is played at Philips (Eindhoven). PSV Eindhoven are 3rd in the table with 16 points from 7 games; Heerenveen are 10th with 9.
Our tips for this match
- PSV Eindhoven to win · 75% · Fair odds 1.34 · MegaPari 1.25
- PSV Eindhoven or draw · 88% · Fair odds 1.13 · MegaPari 1.08
- Over 1.5 goals · 87% · Fair odds 1.15 · MegaPari 1.04
- Over 2.5 goals · 74% · Fair odds 1.35 · MegaPari 1.17
- Both teams to score: yes · 65% · Fair odds 1.53 · MegaPari 1.32
Who will win PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen?
The model makes PSV Eindhoven clear favourites at 75%, with the draw at 14% and Heerenveen at 12%. MegaPari's 1.25 on PSV Eindhoven is shorter than our fair price of 1.34: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Five markets clear our thresholds for this match: PSV Eindhoven to win (75%), PSV Eindhoven or draw (88%), over 1.5 goals (87%), over 2.5 goals (74%) and both teams to score: yes (65%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven to win Tip | 75% | 1.34 | 1.25 |
| Draw | 14% | 7.33 | 7.40 |
| Heerenveen to win | 12% | 8.62 | 8.30 |
| PSV Eindhoven or draw Tip | 88% | 1.13 | 1.08 |
| Draw or Heerenveen | 25% | 3.96 | 3.90 |
| PSV Eindhoven or Heerenveen | 86% | 1.16 | 1.09 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 87% | 1.15 | 1.04 |
| Over 2.5 goals Tip | 74% | 1.35 | 1.17 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 26% | 3.88 | 4.20 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 50% | 1.98 | 2.70 |
| Both teams to score: yes Tip | 65% | 1.53 | 1.32 |
| Both teams to score: no | 35% | 2.87 | 3.15 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 20:54 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen
Goals are expected: 3.0 for PSV Eindhoven and 1.2 for Heerenveen, 4.2 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 74%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 65%.
PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 3-1 at 8%, ahead of 2-1 (8%) and 3-0 (7%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 12 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | 8.1% | 12.36 |
| 2-1 | 8.0% | 12.45 |
| 3-0 | 6.7% | 14.88 |
| 2-0 | 6.7% | 15.02 |
| 4-1 | 6.1% | 16.34 |
Form: PSV Eindhoven and Heerenveen in their last five
PSV Eindhoven have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +9. Heerenveen have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +1. The results cover every competition in our data.
PSV Eindhoven: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Twente (away)Eredivisie | 2-3 | L |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam (home)Eredivisie | 4-1 | W |
| 10 Sep 2026 | Shakhtar Donetsk (home)UEFA Champions League | 1-1 | D |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Ajax (away)Eredivisie | 3-1 | W |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Utrecht (away)Eredivisie | 6-1 | W |
Heerenveen: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam (away)Eredivisie | 4-0 | W |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Telstar (home)Eredivisie | 0-0 | D |
| 6 Sep 2026 | AZ (home)Eredivisie | 2-3 | L |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Willem II (away)Eredivisie | 2-2 | D |
| 22 Aug 2026 | PEC Zwolle (home)Eredivisie | 0-2 | L |
PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen head to head
In their last six meetings in our data, PSV Eindhoven won 5, Heerenveen won 1 and none was drawn. The most recent, on 21 February 2026, finished PSV Eindhoven 3–1 Heerenveen.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 21 Feb 2026 | PSV Eindhoven – HeerenveenEredivisie | 3-1 |
| 6 Dec 2025 | Heerenveen – PSV EindhovenEredivisie | 0-2 |
| 8 Mar 2025 | PSV Eindhoven – HeerenveenEredivisie | 2-1 |
| 14 Dec 2024 | Heerenveen – PSV EindhovenEredivisie | 1-0 |
| 25 Apr 2024 | Heerenveen – PSV EindhovenEredivisie | 0-8 |
| 7 Dec 2023 | PSV Eindhoven – HeerenveenEredivisie | 2-0 |
How the odds have moved
MegaPari's price on PSV Eindhoven has drifted from 1.23 to 1.25 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.12 to 1.17, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.
| Bet | Opening odds | Latest odds |
|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven to win | 1.23 | 1.25 ↑ |
| Draw | 7.30 | 7.40 ↑ |
| Heerenveen to win | 9.60 | 8.30 ↓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.12 | 1.17 ↑ |
| Under 2.5 goals | 4.65 | 4.20 ↓ |
| Both teams to score: yes | 1.39 | 1.32 ↓ |
| Both teams to score: no | 2.77 | 3.15 ↑ |
Prices from MegaPari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.
All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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