EFL Championship
Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County prediction: EFL Championship, Wednesday 14 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Queens Park Rangers
Derby County
- Queens Park Rangers
- 46%MegaPari 1.85
- Draw
- 27%MegaPari 3.55
- Derby County
- 28%MegaPari 3.95
No tip: no market clears our thresholds for this match.
xG 1.4–1.2 · likeliest 1-1 (13%)
Queens Park Rangers host Derby County in the EFL Championship on Wednesday 14 October, kick-off 21:45 EAT.
Who will win Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County?
Queens Park Rangers are favourites, though not by much: 46% to win, 27% for the draw and 28% for Derby County. MegaPari's 1.85 on Queens Park Rangers is shorter than our fair price of 2.19: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Queens Park Rangers to win | 46% | 2.19 | 1.85 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.76 | 3.55 |
| Derby County to win | 28% | 3.61 | 3.95 |
| Queens Park Rangers or draw | 72% | 1.38 | – |
| Draw or Derby County | 54% | 1.84 | – |
| Queens Park Rangers or Derby County | 73% | 1.36 | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 1.34 | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 1.97 | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49% | 2.03 | – |
| Under 3.5 goals | 72% | 1.40 | – |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | 1.86 | – |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | 2.17 | – |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 8 October 2026, 00:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County
Expected goals are 1.4 for Queens Park Rangers and 1.2 for Derby County, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 51%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 54%.
Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 1-0 (10%) and 2-1 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.8% | 7.79 |
| 1-0 | 9.6% | 10.40 |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | 11.38 |
| 0-1 | 8.2% | 12.22 |
| 0-0 | 7.6% | 13.16 |
Form: Queens Park Rangers and Derby County in their last five
Queens Park Rangers have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +0. Derby County have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -3. The results cover every competition in our data.
Queens Park Rangers: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Preston North End (home)EFL Championship | 2-2 | D |
| 12 Sep 2026 | West Bromwich Albion (away)EFL Championship | 1-1 | D |
| 9 Sep 2026 | Charlton Athletic (away)EFL Championship | 0-0 | D |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Middlesbrough (home)EFL Championship | 0-1 | L |
| 2 Sep 2026 | Cardiff City (home)EFL Championship | 2-1 | W |
Derby County: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Burnley (away)EFL Championship | 1-1 | D |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Birmingham City (home)EFL Championship | 1-2 | L |
| 9 Sep 2026 | West Bromwich Albion (home)EFL Championship | 0-1 | L |
| 5 Sep 2026 | West Ham (away)EFL Championship | 0-3 | L |
| 1 Sep 2026 | Portsmouth (away)EFL Championship | 2-0 | W |
Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County head to head
In their last four meetings in our data, Queens Park Rangers won 1, Derby County won 3 and none was drawn. The most recent, on 25 April 2026, finished Queens Park Rangers 2–3 Derby County.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr 2026 | Queens Park Rangers – Derby CountyEFL Championship | 2-3 |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Derby County – Queens Park RangersEFL Championship | 1-0 |
| 14 Feb 2025 | Queens Park Rangers – Derby CountyEFL Championship | 4-0 |
| 5 Oct 2024 | Derby County – Queens Park RangersEFL Championship | 2-0 |
The rest of the EFL Championship is on our Championship page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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