Scottish Premiership
Rangers vs Kilmarnock prediction: Scottish Premiership, Saturday 10 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Rangers host Kilmarnock in the Scottish Premiership on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 17:00 EAT. The match is played at Ibrox (Glasgow). Rangers are 2nd in the table with 16 points from 7 games; Kilmarnock are 12th with 5.
Our tips for this match
- Rangers to win · 78% · Fair odds 1.29 · MegaPari 1.13
- Rangers or draw · 92% · Fair odds 1.09 · MegaPari 1.03
- Over 1.5 goals · 82% · Fair odds 1.22 · MegaPari 1.04
- Over 2.5 goals · 66% · Fair odds 1.50 · MegaPari 1.26
Who will win Rangers vs Kilmarnock?
The model makes Rangers clear favourites at 78%, with the draw at 14% and Kilmarnock at 8%. MegaPari's 1.13 on Rangers is shorter than our fair price of 1.29: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Four markets clear our thresholds for this match: Rangers to win (78%), Rangers or draw (92%), over 1.5 goals (82%) and over 2.5 goals (66%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers to win Tip | 78% | 1.29 | 1.13 |
| Draw | 14% | 7.21 | 8.20 |
| Kilmarnock to win | 8% | 11.99 | 15.00 |
| Rangers or draw Tip | 92% | 1.09 | 1.03 |
| Draw or Kilmarnock | 22% | 4.50 | 5.40 |
| Rangers or Kilmarnock | 86% | 1.16 | 1.05 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 82% | 1.22 | 1.04 |
| Over 2.5 goals Tip | 66% | 1.50 | 1.26 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34% | 2.98 | 3.20 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 61% | 1.64 | 2.01 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | 1.94 | 1.88 |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | 2.06 | 1.82 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 20:54 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Rangers vs Kilmarnock
Goals are expected: 2.5 for Rangers and 0.9 for Kilmarnock, 3.4 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 66%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 52%.
Rangers vs Kilmarnock correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 2-0 at 11%, ahead of 2-1 (9%) and 3-0 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | 10.6% | 9.42 |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | 10.76 |
| 3-0 | 9.0% | 11.14 |
| 1-0 | 8.1% | 12.38 |
| 3-1 | 7.8% | 12.74 |
Form: Rangers and Kilmarnock in their last five
Rangers are unbeaten in 5 (4 wins, 1 draw), with 6 goals scored and 2 conceded. Kilmarnock have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -4. The results cover every competition in our data.
Rangers: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Celtic (away)Scottish Premiership | 1-0 | W |
| 11 Sep 2026 | Sobemap (away)CAF Champions League | 1-1 | D |
| 9 Sep 2026 | St. Mirren (home)Scottish Premiership | 1-0 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Motherwell (home)Scottish Premiership | 1-0 | W |
| 2 Sep 2026 | Falkirk (away)Scottish Premiership | 2-1 | W |
Kilmarnock: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Heart of Midlothian (home)Scottish Premiership | 1-1 | D |
| 15 Sep 2026 | Hibernian (away)Scottish Premiership | 1-0 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Aberdeen (away)Scottish Premiership | 0-0 | D |
| 2 Sep 2026 | St. Mirren (home)Scottish Premiership | 0-1 | L |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Dundee United (home)Scottish Premiership | 0-4 | L |
Rangers vs Kilmarnock head to head
In their last six meetings in our data, Rangers won 5, Kilmarnock won 1 and none was drawn. The most recent, on 4 February 2026, finished Rangers 5–1 Kilmarnock.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 4 Feb 2026 | Rangers – KilmarnockScottish Premiership | 5-1 |
| 6 Dec 2025 | Kilmarnock – RangersScottish Premiership | 0-3 |
| 26 Oct 2025 | Rangers – KilmarnockScottish Premiership | 3-1 |
| 26 Feb 2025 | Kilmarnock – RangersScottish Premiership | 2-4 |
| 4 Dec 2024 | Rangers – KilmarnockScottish Premiership | 6-0 |
| 20 Oct 2024 | Kilmarnock – RangersScottish Premiership | 1-0 |
All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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