Roma vs Real Madrid prediction: UEFA Champions League, Wednesday 14 October

Roma host Real Madrid in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday 14 October, kick-off 22:00 EAT. The match is played at Olimpico (Rome). Roma are 17th in the table with 1 points from 1 games; Real Madrid are 14th with 3.

Who will win Roma vs Real Madrid?

There is little to separate the sides: Roma 34%, the draw 25%, Real Madrid 42%. MegaPari's 1.97 on Real Madrid is shorter than our fair price of 2.40: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (78%), over 2.5 goals (61%) and both teams to score: yes (62%).

Odds: MegaPari, as of 8 October 2026, 00:41 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Roma vs Real Madrid

Goals are expected: 1.6 for Roma and 1.4 for Real Madrid, 3.0 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 61%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 62%.

Roma vs Real Madrid correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 2-1 (9%) and 1-2 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.

Form: Roma and Real Madrid in their last five

Roma are unbeaten in 5 (3 wins, 2 draws), with 11 goals scored and 4 conceded. Real Madrid have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +3. The results cover every competition in our data.

Roma: last five matches

Real Madrid: last five matches

Roma vs Real Madrid head to head

Roma and Real Madrid have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.

How the odds have moved

MegaPari's price on Real Madrid has shortened from 2.04 to 1.97 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.39 to 1.38, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from MegaPari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of the UEFA Champions League is on our Champions League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.