Eredivisie
SBV Excelsior vs Groningen prediction: Eredivisie, Sunday 11 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
SBV Excelsior host Groningen in Eredivisie on Sunday 11 October, kick-off 17:45 EAT. The match is played at Woudestein (Rotterdam). SBV Excelsior are 7th in the table with 11 points from 7 games; Groningen are 8th with 11.
Our tips for this match
- Both teams to score: yes · 60% · Fair odds 1.67 · MegaPari 1.44
Who will win SBV Excelsior vs Groningen?
There is little to separate the sides: SBV Excelsior 39%, the draw 26%, Groningen 35%. MegaPari's 2.58 on SBV Excelsior sits right on our fair price of 2.58.
One market clears our thresholds for this match: both teams to score: yes (60%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| SBV Excelsior to win | 39% | 2.58 | 2.58 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.85 | 3.64 |
| Groningen to win | 35% | 2.83 | 2.55 |
| SBV Excelsior or draw | 65% | 1.55 | 1.52 |
| Draw or Groningen | 61% | 1.63 | 1.51 |
| SBV Excelsior or Groningen | 74% | 1.35 | 1.29 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 1.30 | 1.12 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 1.74 | 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43% | 2.35 | 2.33 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 69% | 1.46 | 1.62 |
| Both teams to score: yes Tip | 60% | 1.67 | 1.44 |
| Both teams to score: no | 40% | 2.50 | 2.60 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 20:54 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in SBV Excelsior vs Groningen
Expected goals are 1.5 for SBV Excelsior and 1.4 for Groningen, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 57%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 60%.
SBV Excelsior vs Groningen correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 2-1 (9%) and 1-0 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.2% | 8.21 |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | 11.35 |
| 1-0 | 8.2% | 12.15 |
| 1-2 | 7.9% | 12.69 |
| 0-1 | 7.3% | 13.68 |
Form: SBV Excelsior and Groningen in their last five
SBV Excelsior have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +3. Groningen have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -2. The results cover every competition in our data.
SBV Excelsior: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Ajax (away)Eredivisie | 2-2 | D |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Utrecht (home)Eredivisie | 1-2 | L |
| 8 Sep 2026 | NEC (away)Eredivisie | 2-2 | D |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Willem II (away)Eredivisie | 3-0 | W |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam (home)Eredivisie | 2-1 | W |
Groningen: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2026 | PEC Zwolle (home)Eredivisie | 3-0 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Go Ahead Eagles (away)Eredivisie | 1-1 | D |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Twente (home)Eredivisie | 2-2 | D |
| 28 Aug 2026 | Fortuna Sittard (home)Eredivisie | 2-3 | L |
| 23 Aug 2026 | PSV Eindhoven (away)Eredivisie | 1-5 | L |
SBV Excelsior vs Groningen head to head
In their last two meetings in our data, SBV Excelsior won 1, Groningen won 1 and none was drawn. The most recent, on 2 May 2026, finished Groningen 2–3 SBV Excelsior.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2 May 2026 | Groningen – SBV ExcelsiorEredivisie | 2-3 |
| 5 Dec 2025 | SBV Excelsior – GroningenEredivisie | 0-2 |
All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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