UEFA Champions League
Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens prediction: UEFA Champions League, Wednesday 14 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Shakhtar Donetsk
AEK Athens
- Shakhtar Donetsk
- 39%MegaPari 2.81
- Draw
- 28%MegaPari 3.58
- AEK Athens
- 34%MegaPari 2.63
No tip: no market clears our thresholds for this match.
xG 1.4–1.1 · likeliest 1-1 (13%)
Shakhtar Donetsk host AEK Athens in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday 14 October, kick-off 22:00 EAT. The match is played at Stamford Bridge (London). Shakhtar Donetsk are 18th in the table with 1 points from 1 games; AEK Athens are 16th with 3.
Who will win Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens?
There is little to separate the sides: Shakhtar Donetsk 39%, the draw 28%, AEK Athens 34%. MegaPari pays 2.81 on Shakhtar Donetsk, more than our fair price of 2.59.
No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk to win | 39% | 2.59 | 2.81 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.61 | 3.58 |
| AEK Athens to win | 34% | 2.97 | 2.63 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk or draw | 66% | 1.51 | 1.55 |
| Draw or AEK Athens | 61% | 1.63 | 1.49 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk or AEK Athens | 72% | 1.38 | 1.34 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | 1.38 | 1.23 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 2.00 | 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50% | 2.00 | 2.03 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 74% | 1.36 | 1.33 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | 1.83 | 1.63 |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | 2.21 | 2.17 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 8 October 2026, 00:41 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens
Expected goals are 1.4 for Shakhtar Donetsk and 1.1 for AEK Athens, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 50%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 55%.
Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 1-0 (11%) and 0-0 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.2% | 7.56 |
| 1-0 | 10.9% | 9.17 |
| 0-0 | 8.8% | 11.33 |
| 0-1 | 8.8% | 11.39 |
| 2-1 | 8.7% | 11.47 |
Form: Shakhtar Donetsk and AEK Athens in their last five
Shakhtar Donetsk have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +4. AEK Athens are unbeaten in 5 (3 wins, 2 draws), with 10 goals scored and 3 conceded. The results cover every competition in our data.
Shakhtar Donetsk: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | LNZ (home)Ukrainian Premier League | 3-0 | W |
| 14 Sep 2026 | Chornomorets Odesa (home)Ukrainian Premier League | 2-0 | W |
| 10 Sep 2026 | PSV Eindhoven (away)UEFA Champions League | 1-1 | D |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Karpaty Lviv (away)Ukrainian Premier League | 2-1 | W |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Polissya Zhytomyr (home)Ukrainian Premier League | 0-2 | L |
AEK Athens: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Volos NFC (away)Super League Greece | 2-1 | W |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Asteras Tripolis (away)Super League Greece | 1-1 | D |
| 8 Sep 2026 | LASK (home)UEFA Champions League | 1-0 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Aris (home)Super League Greece | 5-0 | W |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Kifisias (away)Super League Greece | 1-1 | D |
Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens head to head
Shakhtar Donetsk and AEK Athens have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
The rest of the UEFA Champions League is on our Champions League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
Promo code: TIPSQUANT