EFL Championship
Southampton vs Portsmouth prediction: EFL Championship, Sunday 11 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Southampton host Portsmouth in the EFL Championship on Sunday 11 October, kick-off 14:00 EAT.
Who will win Southampton vs Portsmouth?
The model makes Southampton clear favourites at 61%, with the draw at 22% and Portsmouth at 17%. MegaPari's 1.61 on Southampton sits right on our fair price of 1.63.
Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: Southampton to win (61%), Southampton or draw (83%) and over 1.5 goals (80%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton to win Tip | 61% | 1.63 | 1.61 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.62 | 4.00 |
| Portsmouth to win | 17% | 5.88 | 5.03 |
| Southampton or draw Tip | 83% | 1.21 | 1.14 |
| Draw or Portsmouth | 39% | 2.59 | 2.25 |
| Southampton or Portsmouth | 78% | 1.28 | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 80% | 1.25 | 1.16 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 1.73 | 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42% | 2.38 | 2.17 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 63% | 1.58 | 1.42 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | 1.81 | 1.67 |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | 2.24 | 2.08 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 22:36 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Southampton vs Portsmouth
Expected goals are 2.2 for Southampton and 1.0 for Portsmouth, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 58%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 55%.
Southampton vs Portsmouth correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 2-1 at 10%, ahead of 2-0 (10%) and 1-1 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 10 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 9.8% | 10.16 |
| 2-0 | 9.8% | 10.17 |
| 1-1 | 9.2% | 10.85 |
| 1-0 | 8.5% | 11.78 |
| 3-1 | 7.3% | 13.72 |
Form: Southampton and Portsmouth in their last five
Southampton have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +4. Portsmouth have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. The results cover every competition in our data.
Southampton: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Wrexham (away)EFL Championship | 1-2 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Bristol City (home)EFL Championship | 4-1 | W |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Swansea City (home)EFL Championship | 3-1 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Lincoln City (away)EFL Championship | 1-1 | D |
| 1 Sep 2026 | Birmingham City (away)EFL Championship | 1-1 | D |
Portsmouth: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Blackburn Rovers (home)EFL Championship | 2-2 | D |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Charlton Athletic (away)EFL Championship | 0-0 | D |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Cardiff City (home)EFL Championship | 2-0 | W |
| 1 Sep 2026 | Derby County (home)EFL Championship | 0-2 | L |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Bristol City (away)EFL Championship | 1-2 | L |
Southampton vs Portsmouth head to head
In their last two meetings in our data, Southampton won none, Portsmouth won none and 2 were drawn. The most recent, on 25 January 2026, finished Portsmouth 1–1 Southampton.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 25 Jan 2026 | Portsmouth – SouthamptonEFL Championship | 1-1 |
| 14 Sep 2025 | Southampton – PortsmouthEFL Championship | 0-0 |
The rest of the EFL Championship is on our Championship page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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