Belgian Pro League
Standard Liege vs R. Charleroi prediction: Belgian Pro League, Sunday 11 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Standard Liege host R. Charleroi in the Belgian Pro League on Sunday 11 October, kick-off 14:30 EAT. The match is played at Maurice Dufrasne (Liege). Standard Liege are 7th in the table with 11 points from 7 games; R. Charleroi are 4th with 18.
Our tips for this match
- Under 3.5 goals · 77% · Fair odds 1.31 · MegaPari 1.31
Who will win Standard Liege vs R. Charleroi?
There is little to separate the sides: Standard Liege 34%, the draw 28%, R. Charleroi 38%. MegaPari's 2.35 on R. Charleroi is shorter than our fair price of 2.61: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
One market clears our thresholds for this match: under 3.5 goals (77%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard Liege to win | 34% | 2.98 | 2.89 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.55 | 3.54 |
| R. Charleroi to win | 38% | 2.61 | 2.35 |
| Standard Liege or draw | 62% | 1.62 | 1.59 |
| Draw or R. Charleroi | 66% | 1.50 | 1.41 |
| Standard Liege or R. Charleroi | 72% | 1.39 | 1.29 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | 1.42 | 1.21 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 2.06 | 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51% | 1.95 | 1.98 |
| Under 3.5 goals Tip | 77% | 1.31 | 1.31 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | 1.86 | 1.63 |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | 2.16 | 2.14 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 20:54 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Standard Liege vs R. Charleroi
Expected goals are 1.1 for Standard Liege and 1.2 for R. Charleroi, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 49%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 54%.
Standard Liege vs R. Charleroi correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 14%, ahead of 0-1 (11%) and 1-0 (11%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.8% | 7.25 |
| 0-1 | 11.3% | 8.87 |
| 1-0 | 10.8% | 9.23 |
| 0-0 | 10.6% | 9.40 |
| 1-2 | 7.7% | 12.92 |
Form: Standard Liege and R. Charleroi in their last five
Standard Liege have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +1. R. Charleroi have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +5. The results cover every competition in our data.
Standard Liege: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2026 | Gent (away)Belgian Pro League | 1-2 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | K.V.C. Westerlo (away)Belgian Pro League | 2-4 | L |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Antwerp (home)Belgian Pro League | 1-0 | W |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Oud-Heverlee Leuven (away)Belgian Pro League | 2-1 | W |
| 21 Aug 2026 | RAAL La Louviere (home)Belgian Pro League | 2-0 | W |
R. Charleroi: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Cercle Brugge (home)Belgian Pro League | 3-2 | W |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Zulte Waregem (away)Belgian Pro League | 1-0 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Union Saint-Gilloise (home)Belgian Pro League | 2-3 | L |
| 29 Aug 2026 | KV Kortrijk (away)Belgian Pro League | 3-1 | W |
| 22 Aug 2026 | Mechelen (home)Belgian Pro League | 2-0 | W |
Standard Liege vs R. Charleroi head to head
In their last six meetings in our data, Standard Liege won 2, R. Charleroi won 4 and none was drawn. The most recent, on 23 May 2026, finished Standard Liege 0–2 R. Charleroi.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 23 May 2026 | Standard Liege – R. CharleroiBelgian Pro League | 0-2 |
| 18 Apr 2026 | R. Charleroi – Standard LiegeBelgian Pro League | 1-2 |
| 18 Jan 2026 | R. Charleroi – Standard LiegeBelgian Pro League | 2-0 |
| 31 Oct 2025 | Standard Liege – R. CharleroiBelgian Pro League | 3-1 |
| 4 May 2025 | Standard Liege – R. CharleroiBelgian Pro League | 0-1 |
| 6 Apr 2025 | R. Charleroi – Standard LiegeBelgian Pro League | 1-0 |
All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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