EFL Championship
Stoke City vs Middlesbrough prediction: EFL Championship, Tuesday 13 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Stoke City host Middlesbrough in the EFL Championship on Tuesday 13 October, kick-off 22:00 EAT.
Our tips for this match
No tip: no market clears our thresholds for this match.
Who will win Stoke City vs Middlesbrough?
Middlesbrough are favourites, though not by much: 45% to win, 27% for the draw and 28% for Stoke City. MegaPari's 1.94 on Middlesbrough is shorter than our fair price of 2.20: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke City to win | 28% | 3.58 | 3.56 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.76 | 3.60 |
| Middlesbrough to win | 45% | 2.20 | 1.94 |
| Stoke City or draw | 55% | 1.83 | – |
| Draw or Middlesbrough | 72% | 1.39 | – |
| Stoke City or Middlesbrough | 73% | 1.36 | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | 1.36 | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 2.02 | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51% | 1.98 | – |
| Under 3.5 goals | 73% | 1.37 | – |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | 1.89 | – |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | 2.12 | – |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 20:54 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Stoke City vs Middlesbrough
Expected goals are 1.1 for Stoke City and 1.4 for Middlesbrough, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 49%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 53%.
Stoke City vs Middlesbrough correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 0-1 (11%) and 1-2 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.0% | 7.67 |
| 0-1 | 10.5% | 9.51 |
| 1-2 | 8.9% | 11.26 |
| 1-0 | 8.3% | 11.99 |
| 0-0 | 8.3% | 12.08 |
Form: Stoke City and Middlesbrough in their last five
Stoke City are unbeaten in 5 (4 wins, 1 draw), with 10 goals scored and 3 conceded. Middlesbrough are unbeaten in 5 (2 wins, 3 draws), with 10 goals scored and 8 conceded. The results cover every competition in our data.
Stoke City: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Sheffield United (home)EFL Championship | 2-1 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Watford (away)EFL Championship | 2-1 | W |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Cardiff City (away)EFL Championship | 1-1 | D |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Charlton Athletic (home)EFL Championship | 4-0 | W |
| 1 Sep 2026 | Norwich City (home)EFL Championship | 1-0 | W |
Middlesbrough: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Birmingham City (away)EFL Championship | 2-2 | D |
| 15 Sep 2026 | Millwall (home)EFL Championship | 2-2 | D |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Norwich City (home)EFL Championship | 4-3 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Queens Park Rangers (away)EFL Championship | 1-0 | W |
| 2 Sep 2026 | Burnley (away)EFL Championship | 1-1 | D |
Stoke City vs Middlesbrough head to head
In their last six meetings in our data, Stoke City won 2, Middlesbrough won 3 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 21 January 2026, finished Stoke City 1–2 Middlesbrough.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 21 Jan 2026 | Stoke City – MiddlesbroughEFL Championship | 1-2 |
| 30 Sep 2025 | Middlesbrough – Stoke CityEFL Championship | 0-0 |
| 25 Feb 2025 | Stoke City – MiddlesbroughEFL Championship | 1-3 |
| 28 Sep 2024 | Middlesbrough – Stoke CityEFL Championship | 2-0 |
| 2 Mar 2024 | Stoke City – MiddlesbroughEFL Championship | 2-0 |
| 28 Oct 2023 | Middlesbrough – Stoke CityEFL Championship | 0-2 |
The rest of the EFL Championship is on our Championship page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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