EFL Championship
Swansea City vs Norwich City prediction: EFL Championship, Saturday 10 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Swansea City
Norwich City
- Swansea City
- 41%MegaPari 2.45
- Draw
- 27%MegaPari 3.38
- Norwich City
- 32%MegaPari 2.70
No tip: no market clears our thresholds for this match.
xG 1.6–1.3 · likeliest 1-1 (12%)
Swansea City host Norwich City in the EFL Championship on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 14:30 EAT.
Who will win Swansea City vs Norwich City?
There is little to separate the sides: Swansea City 41%, the draw 27%, Norwich City 32%. MegaPari's 2.45 on Swansea City sits right on our fair price of 2.42.
No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea City to win | 41% | 2.42 | 2.45 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.77 | 3.38 |
| Norwich City to win | 32% | 3.11 | 2.70 |
| Swansea City or draw | 68% | 1.47 | 1.43 |
| Draw or Norwich City | 59% | 1.70 | 1.51 |
| Swansea City or Norwich City | 73% | 1.36 | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 1.30 | 1.20 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 1.86 | 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46% | 2.16 | 2.02 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 69% | 1.46 | 1.36 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | 1.75 | 1.58 |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | 2.33 | 2.23 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 22:36 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Swansea City vs Norwich City
Expected goals are 1.6 for Swansea City and 1.3 for Norwich City, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 54%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 57%.
Swansea City vs Norwich City correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 2-1 (9%) and 1-0 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.0% | 8.31 |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | 10.85 |
| 1-0 | 8.7% | 11.47 |
| 2-0 | 7.3% | 13.68 |
| 1-2 | 7.3% | 13.70 |
Form: Swansea City and Norwich City in their last five
Swansea City have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +3. Norwich City have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +0. The results cover every competition in our data.
Swansea City: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Lincoln City (away)EFL Championship | 2-1 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Burnley (home)EFL Championship | 3-1 | W |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Southampton (away)EFL Championship | 1-3 | L |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Wrexham (home)EFL Championship | 0-0 | D |
| 1 Sep 2026 | Watford (home)EFL Championship | 2-0 | W |
Norwich City: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Bolton Wanderers (home)EFL Championship | 3-4 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Middlesbrough (away)EFL Championship | 3-4 | L |
| 9 Sep 2026 | Birmingham City (home)EFL Championship | 2-1 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Sheffield United (away)EFL Championship | 3-1 | W |
| 1 Sep 2026 | Stoke City (away)EFL Championship | 0-1 | L |
Swansea City vs Norwich City head to head
In their last six meetings in our data, Swansea City won 3, Norwich City won 1 and 2 were drawn. The most recent, on 25 April 2026, finished Norwich City 1–1 Swansea City.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr 2026 | Norwich City – Swansea CityEFL Championship | 1-1 |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Swansea City – Norwich CityEFL Championship | 2-1 |
| 25 Jan 2025 | Norwich City – Swansea CityEFL Championship | 5-1 |
| 14 Sep 2024 | Swansea City – Norwich CityEFL Championship | 1-0 |
| 27 Apr 2024 | Norwich City – Swansea CityEFL Championship | 2-2 |
| 4 Oct 2023 | Swansea City – Norwich CityEFL Championship | 2-1 |
The rest of the EFL Championship is on our Championship page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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