Union Saint-Gilloise vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven prediction: Belgian Pro League, Sunday 11 October

Union Saint-Gilloise host Oud-Heverlee Leuven in the Belgian Pro League on Sunday 11 October, kick-off 17:00 EAT. The match is played at Joseph Marien (Brussel). Union Saint-Gilloise are 1st in the table with 19 points from 7 games; Oud-Heverlee Leuven are 15th with 4.

Who will win Union Saint-Gilloise vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven?

The model makes Union Saint-Gilloise clear favourites at 77%, with the draw at 16% and Oud-Heverlee Leuven at 8%. MegaPari's 1.26 on Union Saint-Gilloise is shorter than our fair price of 1.30: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: Union Saint-Gilloise to win (77%) and Union Saint-Gilloise or draw (92%).

Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 22:36 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Union Saint-Gilloise vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven

Goals are expected: 2.3 for Union Saint-Gilloise and 0.5 for Oud-Heverlee Leuven, 2.8 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 58%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 47%.

Union Saint-Gilloise vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 2-0 at 16%, ahead of 1-0 (14%) and 3-0 (12%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 6 matches like this one.

Form: Union Saint-Gilloise and Oud-Heverlee Leuven in their last five

Union Saint-Gilloise have won all of their last 5, scoring 16 and conceding 2. Oud-Heverlee Leuven have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -3. The results cover every competition in our data.

Union Saint-Gilloise: last five matches

Oud-Heverlee Leuven: last five matches

Union Saint-Gilloise vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven head to head

In their last four meetings in our data, Union Saint-Gilloise won 2, Oud-Heverlee Leuven won none and 2 were drawn. The most recent, on 24 January 2026, finished Oud-Heverlee Leuven 0–0 Union Saint-Gilloise.

How the odds have moved

Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.41 to 1.43, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.

Prices from MegaPari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.