Eredivisie
Utrecht vs Willem II prediction: Eredivisie, Sunday 11 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Utrecht host Willem II in Eredivisie on Sunday 11 October, kick-off 13:15 EAT. The match is played at Galgenwaard (Utrecht). Utrecht are 15th in the table with 5 points from 7 games; Willem II are 18th with 2.
Our tips for this match
- Utrecht to win · 61% · Fair odds 1.63 · MegaPari 1.51
- Utrecht or draw · 83% · Fair odds 1.20 · MegaPari 1.15
Who will win Utrecht vs Willem II?
The model makes Utrecht clear favourites at 61%, with the draw at 22% and Willem II at 17%. MegaPari's 1.51 on Utrecht is shorter than our fair price of 1.63: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: Utrecht to win (61%) and Utrecht or draw (83%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utrecht to win Tip | 61% | 1.63 | 1.51 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.54 | 4.64 |
| Willem II to win | 17% | 6.00 | 5.65 |
| Utrecht or draw Tip | 83% | 1.20 | 1.15 |
| Draw or Willem II | 39% | 2.58 | 2.55 |
| Utrecht or Willem II | 78% | 1.28 | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 1.35 | 1.10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 1.76 | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43% | 2.32 | 2.46 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 72% | 1.40 | 1.68 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | 1.81 | 1.56 |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | 2.23 | 2.28 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 20:54 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Utrecht vs Willem II
Expected goals are 1.8 for Utrecht and 0.8 for Willem II, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 57%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 55%.
Utrecht vs Willem II correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-0 at 12%, ahead of 2-0 (12%) and 1-1 (11%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 12.5% | 8.00 |
| 2-0 | 11.6% | 8.59 |
| 1-1 | 11.2% | 8.92 |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | 10.31 |
| 0-0 | 7.6% | 13.12 |
Form: Utrecht and Willem II in their last five
Utrecht have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -9. Willem II have not won in 5 (2 draws, 3 defeats) and scored 4 in that run. The results cover every competition in our data.
Utrecht: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Feyenoord (away)Eredivisie | 0-5 | L |
| 13 Sep 2026 | SBV Excelsior (away)Eredivisie | 2-1 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Go Ahead Eagles (home)Eredivisie | 3-3 | D |
| 30 Aug 2026 | PSV Eindhoven (home)Eredivisie | 1-6 | L |
| 22 Aug 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam (away)Eredivisie | 3-3 | D |
Willem II: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Fortuna Sittard (home)Eredivisie | 0-1 | L |
| 15 Sep 2026 | Ajax (away)Eredivisie | 1-5 | L |
| 11 Sep 2026 | AZ (away)Eredivisie | 1-1 | D |
| 5 Sep 2026 | SBV Excelsior (home)Eredivisie | 0-3 | L |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Heerenveen (home)Eredivisie | 2-2 | D |
Utrecht vs Willem II head to head
In their last two meetings in our data, Utrecht won 2, Willem II won none and none was drawn. The most recent, on 9 March 2025, finished Willem II 2–3 Utrecht.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 9 Mar 2025 | Willem II – UtrechtEredivisie | 2-3 |
| 21 Sep 2024 | Utrecht – Willem IIEredivisie | 3-2 |
All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
Promo code: TIPSQUANT