Uganda Premier League
Vipers vs Maroons prediction: Uganda Premier League, Sunday 11 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Vipers host Maroons in the Uganda Premier League on Sunday 11 October, kick-off 20:00 EAT. Vipers are 13th in the table with 3 points from 2 games; Maroons are 10th with 4.
Our tips for this match
- Vipers to win · 72% · Fair odds 1.38
- Vipers or draw · 93% · Fair odds 1.08
- Under 3.5 goals · 76% · Fair odds 1.31
Who will win Vipers vs Maroons?
The model makes Vipers clear favourites at 72%, with the draw at 20% and Maroons at 7%.
Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: Vipers to win (72%), Vipers or draw (93%) and under 3.5 goals (76%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Vipers to win Tip | 72% | 1.38 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.91 |
| Maroons to win | 7% | 13.99 |
| Vipers or draw Tip | 93% | 1.08 |
| Draw or Maroons | 27% | 3.64 |
| Vipers or Maroons | 80% | 1.26 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | 1.42 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 2.20 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55% | 1.83 |
| Under 3.5 goals Tip | 76% | 1.31 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 42% | 2.38 |
| Both teams to score: no | 58% | 1.73 |
Goals in Vipers vs Maroons
Expected goals are 1.9 for Vipers and 0.4 for Maroons, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 45%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 42%.
Vipers vs Maroons correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-0 at 19%, ahead of 2-0 (18%) and 3-0 (11%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 5 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 18.5% | 5.39 |
| 2-0 | 17.7% | 5.65 |
| 3-0 | 11.1% | 9.04 |
| 0-0 | 10.4% | 9.64 |
| 1-1 | 8.3% | 12.09 |
Form: Vipers and Maroons in their last five
Vipers have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +7. Maroons have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. The results cover every competition in our data.
Vipers: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Ntugasaze (home)Uganda Premier League | 3-0 | W |
| 28 Aug 2026 | Entebbe UPPC (home)Uganda Premier League | 0-1 | L |
| 23 May 2026 | Express (home)Uganda Premier League | 2-0 | W |
| 19 May 2026 | Maroons (away)Uganda Premier League | 3-0 | W |
| 12 May 2026 | Police (away)Uganda Premier League | 0-0 | D |
Maroons: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Oct 2026 | Lugazi (home)Uganda Premier League | 0-0 | D |
| 17 Sep 2026 | UPDF (away)Uganda Premier League | 0-1 | L |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Blacks Power (home)Uganda Premier League | 1-2 | L |
| 2 Sep 2026 | Ntugasaze (away)Uganda Premier League | 3-1 | W |
| 30 Aug 2026 | URA (home)Uganda Premier League | 1-2 | L |
Vipers vs Maroons head to head
In their last six meetings in our data, Vipers won 4, Maroons won none and 2 were drawn. The most recent, on 19 May 2026, finished Maroons 0–3 Vipers.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 19 May 2026 | Maroons – VipersUganda Premier League | 0-3 |
| 22 Nov 2025 | Vipers – MaroonsUganda Premier League | 2-1 |
| 24 Apr 2025 | Maroons – VipersUganda Premier League | 0-1 |
| 6 Jan 2025 | Vipers – MaroonsUganda Premier League | 1-0 |
| 23 Apr 2024 | Vipers – MaroonsUganda Premier League | 1-1 |
| 13 Dec 2023 | Maroons – VipersUganda Premier League | 1-1 |
The rest of the Uganda Premier League is on our Uganda Premier League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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