EFL Championship
Watford vs Burnley prediction: EFL Championship, Saturday 10 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Watford host Burnley in the EFL Championship on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 17:00 EAT.
Our tips for this match
No tip: no market clears our thresholds for this match.
Who will win Watford vs Burnley?
There is little to separate the sides: Watford 31%, the draw 28%, Burnley 41%. MegaPari's 2.25 on Burnley is shorter than our fair price of 2.43: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Watford to win | 31% | 3.20 | 2.97 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.63 | 3.46 |
| Burnley to win | 41% | 2.43 | 2.25 |
| Watford or draw | 59% | 1.70 | 1.60 |
| Draw or Burnley | 69% | 1.45 | 1.36 |
| Watford or Burnley | 72% | 1.38 | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | 1.38 | 1.19 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 1.98 | 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50% | 2.02 | 1.98 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 74% | 1.35 | 1.33 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | 1.82 | 1.61 |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | 2.22 | 2.18 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 20:54 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Watford vs Burnley
Expected goals are 1.1 for Watford and 1.3 for Burnley, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 50%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 55%.
Watford vs Burnley correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 0-1 (11%) and 1-0 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.3% | 7.51 |
| 0-1 | 10.8% | 9.26 |
| 1-0 | 9.1% | 11.04 |
| 0-0 | 9.0% | 11.16 |
| 1-2 | 8.6% | 11.67 |
Form: Watford and Burnley in their last five
Watford have won 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -4. Burnley have not won in 5 (3 draws, 2 defeats) and scored 5 in that run. The results cover every competition in our data.
Watford: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2026 | Bristol City (away)EFL Championship | 0-1 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Stoke City (home)EFL Championship | 1-2 | L |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Preston North End (home)EFL Championship | 2-1 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | West Bromwich Albion (away)EFL Championship | 0-1 | L |
| 1 Sep 2026 | Swansea City (away)EFL Championship | 0-2 | L |
Burnley: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Derby County (home)EFL Championship | 1-1 | D |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Swansea City (away)EFL Championship | 1-3 | L |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Wrexham (away)EFL Championship | 1-1 | D |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Bristol City (home)EFL Championship | 1-2 | L |
| 2 Sep 2026 | Middlesbrough (home)EFL Championship | 1-1 | D |
Watford vs Burnley head to head
In their last two meetings in our data, Watford won none, Burnley won 2 and none was drawn. The most recent, on 18 April 2025, finished Watford 1–2 Burnley.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 18 Apr 2025 | Watford – BurnleyEFL Championship | 1-2 |
| 21 Dec 2024 | Burnley – WatfordEFL Championship | 2-1 |
The rest of the EFL Championship is on our Championship page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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