EFL Championship
West Bromwich Albion vs Birmingham City prediction: EFL Championship, Saturday 10 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
West Bromwich Albion
Birmingham City
- West Bromwich Albion
- 40%MegaPari 2.28
- Draw
- 29%MegaPari 3.40
- Birmingham City
- 31%MegaPari 2.96
- Under 3.5 goals78% · fair 1.281.32Bet
xG 1.2–1.0 · likeliest 1-1 (14%)
West Bromwich Albion host Birmingham City in the EFL Championship on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 14:30 EAT.
Who will win West Bromwich Albion vs Birmingham City?
There is little to separate the sides: West Bromwich Albion 40%, the draw 29%, Birmingham City 31%. MegaPari's 2.28 on West Bromwich Albion is shorter than our fair price of 2.47: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
One market clears our thresholds for this match: under 3.5 goals (78%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Bromwich Albion to win | 40% | 2.47 | 2.28 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.47 | 3.40 |
| Birmingham City to win | 31% | 3.26 | 2.96 |
| West Bromwich Albion or draw | 69% | 1.44 | 1.36 |
| Draw or Birmingham City | 60% | 1.68 | 1.59 |
| West Bromwich Albion or Birmingham City | 71% | 1.40 | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | 1.45 | 1.20 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 2.09 | 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52% | 1.92 | 1.95 |
| Under 3.5 goals Tip | 78% | 1.28 | 1.32 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | 1.87 | 1.61 |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | 2.15 | 2.17 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 22:36 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in West Bromwich Albion vs Birmingham City
Expected goals are 1.2 for West Bromwich Albion and 1.0 for Birmingham City, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 48%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 53%.
West Bromwich Albion vs Birmingham City correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 14%, ahead of 1-0 (13%) and 0-0 (12%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.8% | 7.23 |
| 1-0 | 12.9% | 7.77 |
| 0-0 | 11.8% | 8.50 |
| 0-1 | 10.6% | 9.43 |
| 2-0 | 8.0% | 12.50 |
Form: West Bromwich Albion and Birmingham City in their last five
West Bromwich Albion have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +1. Birmingham City have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +0. The results cover every competition in our data.
West Bromwich Albion: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Wolves (away)EFL Championship | 0-1 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Queens Park Rangers (home)EFL Championship | 1-1 | D |
| 9 Sep 2026 | Derby County (away)EFL Championship | 1-0 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Watford (home)EFL Championship | 1-0 | W |
| 2 Sep 2026 | Charlton Athletic (home)EFL Championship | 1-1 | D |
Birmingham City: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Middlesbrough (home)EFL Championship | 2-2 | D |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Derby County (away)EFL Championship | 2-1 | W |
| 9 Sep 2026 | Norwich City (away)EFL Championship | 1-2 | L |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Wolves (home)EFL Championship | 2-2 | D |
| 1 Sep 2026 | Southampton (home)EFL Championship | 1-1 | D |
West Bromwich Albion vs Birmingham City head to head
In their last four meetings in our data, West Bromwich Albion won 1, Birmingham City won 1 and 2 were drawn. The most recent, on 10 February 2026, finished Birmingham City 0–0 West Bromwich Albion.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 10 Feb 2026 | Birmingham City – West Bromwich AlbionEFL Championship | 0-0 |
| 26 Nov 2025 | West Bromwich Albion – Birmingham CityEFL Championship | 1-1 |
| 3 Feb 2024 | West Bromwich Albion – Birmingham CityEFL Championship | 1-0 |
| 6 Oct 2023 | Birmingham City – West Bromwich AlbionEFL Championship | 3-1 |
The rest of the EFL Championship is on our Championship page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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