NBA predictions: each game's win chances, the spread and the total, with the picks
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
This is the NBA on its own, taken from our basketball predictions: every game of today and tomorrow with each team's chance to win, the projected score, and our chance on the bookmaker's main spread and total, followed by the picks that clear our thresholds. Nobody types a pick in by hand. The tables rebuild four times a day, and each pick is logged before tip-off and settled from the final score.
Today and tomorrow in East Africa time
The dates here follow East Africa Time, not American time. Most NBA games start in the American evening, after midnight in Nairobi, Kampala and Dar es Salaam, so a game the American media call Tuesday night sits in our Wednesday table. The games still open when you go to bed are usually in the tomorrow table; the today table shows the ones played overnight, and a played game carries its final score. Nigeria is two hours behind EAT and Ghana three, and the site converts every time to your phone's clock.
NBA games today: win chances, spread and total
No game of the basketball competitions we cover is scheduled for this day yet. The list refreshes four times a day.
NBA games tomorrow
No game of the basketball competitions we cover is scheduled for this day yet. The list refreshes four times a day.
Moneyline, spread and over/under: the same three columns
American sites call the winner market the moneyline, the handicap the spread and the points total the over/under. Here they are the 1 and 2 columns, the handicap column and the total column. Picks read as a team to win, a team with its line, or over or under a number of points.
The spread is read from the home team's side. A home line of −5.5 needs a win by six or more; +5.5 allows a defeat by up to five. Our number is the chance that the home team covers, and when it is low enough the pick goes to the visitors with their own line. Overtime counts in all three markets.
NBA moneyline picks today
No basketball tip for this day yet: a tip appears only when the numbers lean clearly to one side.
NBA spread picks today
No basketball tip for this day yet: a tip appears only when the numbers lean clearly to one side.
NBA over/under picks today
No basketball tip for this day yet: a tip appears only when the numbers lean clearly to one side.
Why the NBA ratings move faster
In our other basketball competitions a game keeps half its weight for 150 days. In the NBA it is 45 days, the value our tests on past NBA games preferred. Each team plays 82 regular-season games, and the side you see in March can be very different from the one in November: rotations settle, trades land, injured players return. A short memory follows those changes sooner, at the cost of reacting more to one hot or cold week. At the start of a season the ratings still lean on last season, which is why spread and total picks wait until both teams have five games behind them.
What the numbers do not see
The model reads scores and nothing else. It cannot know that a star is resting, that a team is on the second night of a back-to-back, or that a side out of the play-off race is handing minutes to young players. Some of that reaches our numbers through the bookmaker's lines, one reason the margin is weighted 60% towards the bookmaker and the total 70%. Late news still moves lines after our last refresh, so read the injury report before you bet. Against the bookmaker's own NBA lines any edge is thin, and we do not claim one.
How we pick
The full basketball model, with the season it was tested on, is described on basketball predictions; the methodology page covers the football model and the logging rules both sports share. Moneyline picks need 70%, spread and over/under picks 56%. Every pick shows its fair odds, 1 divided by the probability, so you can see at a glance whether the bookmaker's price is shorter than the model's. The record below counts every basketball competition together, not the NBA alone.
Stake sensibly
Any bet can lose, and an NBA spread can turn on one free throw with seconds left. Betting is for adults aged 18+. Decide your stake before you look at the slate, never chase last night's loss with a bigger bet tonight, and see our responsible gambling page for the limits you can set. If you combine games, the accumulator calculator shows how fast the chance of the whole slip drops; the handicap guide explains plus and minus lines with football examples.
Basketball picks settled over the last 30 days, NBA included
No basketball tip has been settled in this period yet.
Basketball tips are logged before tip-off and settled automatically from the final score, overtime included. A handicap or total that lands exactly on the line is void. They are counted on their own, apart from the football record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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Frequently asked questions
Why are tonight's NBA games in the tomorrow table?
Our dates follow East Africa Time. NBA games usually tip off in the American evening, which is after midnight in Nairobi, so a game listed in America for Tuesday night belongs to Wednesday here. The games you can still bet on before bed are usually in the tomorrow table.
How are your NBA spread predictions made?
We take the bookmaker's main spread for the home team, set our expected margin at 40% model and 60% that line, and turn the gap into the chance that the home team covers. A pick appears when either side reaches 56%. Overtime counts, and a margin landing exactly on a whole-number line is void.
How do NBA over/under predictions work here?
The same way, on the bookmaker's main total. Our expected total is 30% model and 70% the line, and the pick appears when the over or the under reaches 56%. A game that goes to overtime adds points, which helps the over.
Why are there no NBA picks today?
Either no NBA game is scheduled for that date, as in the summer break, or no game leans far enough. A winner pick needs 70%, a spread or total pick 56%, and spread and total picks start only after both teams have played five games of the season.
Are NBA betting tips counted separately?
The NBA shares one basketball record with the other competitions we cover; it is not split out by league. Basketball as a whole is kept apart from the football record.