Corner prediction: expected corners and the chance of over 8.5, 9.5 and 10.5, match by match
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Corner prediction counts something different from the rest of this site: not how often the ball goes in, but how often it goes out over the byline off a defender. For each match today and tomorrow in the competitions with corner counts, you get each side's expected corners, our chance of over 8.5, 9.5 and 10.5 corners in the 90 minutes, the bookmaker's main corner line where it has one, the tip if the match earns one, and the final count. Corners are a noisy market, so most matches carry no tip.
Corner prediction for today
| Kick-off | Match | Expected corners | Over 8.5 | Over 9.5 | Over 10.5 | Tip and result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Olimpia – Club Nacional AsuncionParaguayan Primera División | 5.1 – 4.2 (9.2) | 56% | 44% | 33% | 6-4 corners | |
| Sport Club do Recife – Sao BernardoBrasileirão Série B | 6.2 – 4.8 (11.0) | 74% | 64% | 53% | 5-9 corners | |
| Goias Esporte Clube – Athletic Club MGBrasileirão Série B | 5.8 – 4.1 (9.9) | 64% | 53% | 41% | 5-5 corners | |
| Chicago Fire – Vancouver WhitecapsMLS | 4.7 – 4.7 (9.4) | 58% | 46% | 35% | 2-8 corners | |
| Associacao Atletica Ponte Preta – Esporte Clube JuventudeBrasileirão Série B | 5.0 – 4.5 (9.5) | 59% | 47% | 36% | 4-6 corners | |
| Shooting Stars – Kano PillarsNigeria Premier Football League | 5.5 – 2.9 (8.4) | 45% | 34% | 24% | – | |
| Gnistan – Inter TurkuVeikkausliiga | 4.7 – 5.3 (10.0) | 65% | 53% | 42% | – |
Expected corners: home – away (match total). The over columns give our chance of more corners than the line in the 90 minutes. “Bookmaker line” under a match: the main total-corners line where the bookmaker prices corners, with our chance of the over; a tip there needs that chance (or the under's) to clear our bar. Without corner prices the tip is on a standard line, from the model alone.
How a total corners bet settles
A total corners line adds up the corners of both teams. Over 8.5 wins with nine or more, over 9.5 needs ten, and under 10.5 wins with ten or fewer. Every line ends in a half, so there is never a push. Our tables count the 90 minutes plus stoppage time, nothing after.
Where the numbers come from
Corners have a model of their own, built like the goals model. Every team carries a rating for corners won and one for corners conceded, and every competition has its own corner level and home edge. The ratings are fitted on the corner counts of the last 400 days, a match losing half its weight every 240 days. Match totals swing more than a plain count model expects, so the chances use a wider spread, a variance about 1.2 times the expected total, as measured on past matches.
Where the bookmaker prices corners, mostly in the bigger European competitions, its main line shows in the table, our chance of the over there is blended half and half with its price, and a tip needs 60% for the over or the under. Elsewhere the tip is the over or under on 8.5, 9.5 or 10.5 whose chance sits closest above 68%, from the model alone.
Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability: over 9.5 at 58% is worth about 1.72. A shorter price pays less than the model thinks the bet deserves.
Corner tips for today
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes four times a day.
Honest about the edge
Each league already has a usual corner count, and the model's advantage over simply betting that number is modest. We tested the method on 9,493 past matches, each predicted only from the ones before it. Of those, 4,366 got a model-only tip, and the tips landed 70% of the time against 72% predicted, a touch below. Three tips in ten still lose.
What the model cannot see
The ratings know corner counts and nothing else: no line-ups, no tactics, no news. A side that falls behind early tends to push forward and win corners in clusters, while a side protecting a lead sits deep and concedes them. A red card, a coach leaving out the usual wingers, a heavy pitch or a strong wind can all move the count. When you know any of this before kick-off, give it more weight than the table.
Corners prediction for tomorrow
| Kick-off | Match | Expected corners | Over 8.5 | Over 9.5 | Over 10.5 | Tip and result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Club Internacional – Corinthians PaulistaBrasileirão Série A | 6.0 – 3.9 (9.9) | 64% | 52% | 40% | – | |
| Clube do Remo – Gremio Porto AlegrenseBrasileirão Série A | 5.8 – 4.4 (10.2) | 66% | 55% | 43% | – | |
| Red Bull Bragantino – MirassolBrasileirão Série A | 6.3 – 4.4 (10.6) | 71% | 60% | 49% | Over 8.5 corners | |
| Avai – LondrinaBrasileirão Série B | 5.6 – 4.8 (10.4) | 69% | 58% | 46% | Over 8.5 corners | |
| Operario Ferroviario – Botafogo Ribeirao PretoBrasileirão Série B | 6.0 – 4.7 (10.7) | 72% | 61% | 50% | Over 8.5 corners | |
| EC Vitoria Salvador – ChapecoenseBrasileirão Série A | 6.0 – 4.0 (10.0) | 65% | 53% | 42% | – | |
| Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas – CR Vasco da GamaBrasileirão Série A | 5.2 – 4.4 (9.6) | 60% | 48% | 36% | – | |
| America Minas Gerais – Fortaleza ECBrasileirão Série B | 5.8 – 4.7 (10.5) | 70% | 58% | 47% | Over 8.5 corners | |
| CRB Maceio – Atletico Clube GoianienseBrasileirão Série B | 6.0 – 4.5 (10.4) | 69% | 58% | 47% | Over 8.5 corners | |
| Vila Nova – CuiabaBrasileirão Série B | 5.2 – 4.6 (9.8) | 62% | 50% | 39% | – | |
| Cruzeiro Esporte Clube – Sao PauloBrasileirão Série A | 6.0 – 4.4 (10.4) | 69% | 58% | 46% | Over 8.5 corners | |
| HJK – Vaasan PalloseuraVeikkausliiga | 5.1 – 5.0 (10.1) | 66% | 54% | 43% | – | |
| KuPS – OuluVeikkausliiga | 4.9 – 4.9 (9.8) | 62% | 51% | 39% | – | |
| CFR Cluj – Universitatea ClujRomanian Liga I | 5.4 – 4.0 (9.4) | 58% | 46% | 35% | – | |
| Deportivo Moquegua – Club Cienciano CuscoPeruvian Liga 1 | 4.3 – 4.0 (8.3) | 44% | 33% | 23% | Under 10.5 corners | |
| Shamrock Rovers – Drogheda UnitedLeague of Ireland Premier Division | 5.3 – 3.9 (9.2) | 56% | 44% | 33% | – | |
| Atletico Grau – Deportivo Los ChankasPeruvian Liga 1 | 5.3 – 3.5 (8.8) | 50% | 38% | 28% | Under 10.5 corners |
Expected corners: home – away (match total). The over columns give our chance of more corners than the line in the 90 minutes. “Bookmaker line” under a match: the main total-corners line where the bookmaker prices corners, with our chance of the over; a tip there needs that chance (or the under's) to clear our bar. Without corner prices the tip is on a standard line, from the model alone.
How to read this, and which leagues are missing
The full method sits on the methodology page; the goals side of the same fixtures is on mathematical prediction and over 2.5 predictions. Kick-off times appear in East Africa Time and the site moves them to your own clock: Lagos runs two hours behind EAT and Accra three.
A competition needs corner counts in its results of the last 120 days; the questions below name the ones this leaves out for now.
Each corner tip is logged before kick-off, frozen at kick-off and settled from the corners of the 90 minutes; it is void if no count arrives within three days or the match goes to extra time. Corner tips keep their own record below, apart from the track record headline, and never go into accumulators such as sure 2 odds.
Corners with a clear head
Any bet can lose, and losing runs on corners are normal. Stake small, do not stack corner legs just to make the odds bigger, and never raise your stake to win back a lost bet. The responsible gambling page has help if betting stops being fun. This site is for adults aged 18+ only.
Corner tips settled in the last 30 days
No tip of this market has been settled in this period yet.
Corner tips are logged before kick-off like every other tip and settled from the corner count of the 90 minutes. They are counted here on their own, not in the site's overall record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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Frequently asked questions
What does over 8.5 corners mean?
It is a bet that the two teams together take nine corners or more in the 90 minutes. Eight or fewer and it loses. The line ends in a half, so the count can never sit on it and there is no refund. The tables on this page give our chance of over 8.5 for every match with corner data; divide 1 by that chance and you have the fair odds.
What does over 3.5 corners mean?
Over 3.5 corners wins with four corners or more. A full match with three corners or fewer is unusual, so on the match total this line pays very little, and bookmakers offer it more often on one team's corners or on the first half alone. Our model prices only the total corners of the 90 minutes, so there are no team or half-time corner tips here. The expected corners column still shows each side's number as a guide.
What does under 11.5 corners mean?
Under 11.5 corners wins when the match produces eleven corners or fewer and loses at twelve or more. Our table stops at 10.5, but you can still use it. Under 10.5 is 100% minus the over 10.5 column, and under 11.5 is always a little more likely than under 10.5, because it also wins on exactly eleven.
Which is the best corner prediction site?
We would not call any site the best, ours included, and you should be wary of one that does. What you can check is honesty. Our corner tips were tested on 9,493 past matches, each predicted only from earlier ones, and the model-only tips landed 70% of the time against 72% predicted. Every new corner tip is settled in public on this page, losses included.
How often is the corners prediction for today updated?
The data is refreshed four times a day, at about 02:00, 09:00, 14:00 and 20:40 UTC, and the tables update on their own. Tomorrow's corners can still move as results come in and as the bookmaker opens corner prices for more matches.
Why is a match missing from the corners table, or shown without a tip?
A competition appears only when its recent results carry corner counts, which for now leaves out the Ghana Premier League, the Uganda Premier League, Kenya's FKF Premier League, the Zambia Super League, the CAF Confederation Cup and the A-League Men. A team also needs eight matches with a corner count before it gets numbers. Most matches that are listed get no tip, because their chances do not clear our bar.