Double chance prediction: 1X and X2 tips at 80% or more, for today and tomorrow
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Double chance is the market for readers who want to back a team without being punished for a draw. This page lists every 1X or X2 selection the model rates at 80% or more for today, and the early view for tomorrow, each with its probability and fair odds. The bar is the highest on the site because the market forgives the most, and the prices are short for the same reason. A double chance tip still loses one time in five at 80%; any bet can lose, and the record at the bottom of the page shows how these have done.
Wednesday 7 October: our model analysed 11 matches across 6 competitions and 3 meet the threshold for this market. The strongest is Associacao Atletica Ponte Preta v Esporte Clube Juventude (Draw or away, 90%).
How 1X, X2 and 12 are priced
The model starts from the probability of every scoreline and adds them up three ways: home wins, draws, away wins. A double chance is simply two of those sums added together. 1X is the home total plus the draw total, X2 is the away total plus the draw, and 12 is home plus away; the page prints the stronger of 1X and X2, never 12. There is no separate double chance model, which is why the table on this page always agrees with the betting tips 1X2 table for the same match. Where bookmaker odds are available, the three result probabilities are blended half and half with the market's prices after the margin is removed, and the double chance inherits that blend.
Today's double chance predictions
| Kick-off | Match | Tip | Probability | Fair odds | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Associacao Atletica Ponte Preta – Esporte Clube JuventudeBrasileirão Série B | Draw or away | 90% | 1.11 | 1.02 | Pending | |
| Maroons – LugaziUganda Premier League | Home or draw | 83% | 1.20 | 1.08 | Pending | |
| Shooting Stars – Kano PillarsNigeria Premier Football League | Home or draw | 86% | 1.16 | 1.02 | Pending |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 05:05 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
What the fair odds column tells you
At 80% the fair price is 1.25; at 85% it is about 1.18; at 90% it is 1.11. Those are the prices a bookmaker would offer with no margin, and the one in your app will be a few points lower. The gap matters more here than in any other market, because the margin is a larger share of a short price. A 1X at 1.20 in the app against fair odds of 1.25 is a bet where the bookmaker keeps 4% of every stake over time. That does not make the tip wrong; it makes it worth checking whether a different market on the same match, such as the straight win on the sure six straight win page, is priced more generously for the risk.
Where double chance loses
A 1X loses only when the away side wins, and the model's 80% figure already includes that possibility. The losses come from the places the numbers cannot reach: a favourite resting half its side before a European tie, an early sending-off, a derby played at a tempo the ratings never saw. The 12 selection has its own trap. It loses to a draw, and draws cluster in exactly the matches that look open on paper but turn cautious on the day. If the draw prediction page lists the same fixture, the 12 is weaker than it looks.
Tomorrow's double chance predictions
| Kick-off | Match | Tip | Probability | Fair odds | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC – ExpressUganda Premier League | Home or draw | 87% | 1.14 | – | Pending | |
| KuPS – OuluVeikkausliiga | Home or draw | 84% | 1.19 | 1.12 | Pending | |
| Coastal Union – AzamTanzanian Premier League | Draw or away | 80% | 1.24 | – | Pending | |
| Shamrock Rovers – Drogheda UnitedLeague of Ireland Premier Division | Home or draw | 84% | 1.18 | 1.06 | Pending | |
| Atletico Grau – Deportivo Los ChankasPeruvian Liga 1 | Home or draw | 80% | 1.25 | 1.14 | Pending |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 05:05 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Using this page with the rest of the site
The double chance meaning article walks through how each selection settles on fixed example scores, and the draw no bet meaning article explains the nearest alternative. For a leg with a longer price on the same team, the banker of the day page puts the strongest singles alongside the double chances. Kick-off times are shown in East Africa Time and converted to your local time in the browser.
How we pick, and how a tip is settled
The probabilities come from the Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model set out on the methodology page, fitted on roughly three seasons of results with recent matches weighted most. A selection is printed only at 80%, and teams with fewer than eight matches in the data get nothing. Each tip is logged before kick-off, frozen, and settled from the 90-minute score; a match decided in extra time or on penalties is void, and so is a postponed one. The track record shows every hit and miss. Betting is for adults aged 18+ only, and the responsible gambling page is there for the day it stops being fun.
Double chance and every other tip, settled over the last 30 days
Last 30 days
- Tips
- 23
- Won
- 19
- Lost
- 4
- Hit rate
- 83%
| Market | Tips | Won | Hit rate | Profit at listed odds (1 unit stakes) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 6 | 4 | 67% | -0.26 |
| Double chance | 6 | 6 | 100% | +0.28 |
| Over/Under 2.5 goals | 2 | 1 | 50% | -0.37 |
| Over/Under 3.5 goals | 8 | 8 | 100% | +1.52 |
| Both teams to score | 1 | 0 | 0% | -1.00 |
Every tip is logged before kick-off and settled automatically from the final score. Nothing is edited after the match.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
Promo code: TIPSQUANT
Frequently asked questions
What is a double chance prediction?
A tip that covers two of the three match results in one selection: 1X is home win or draw, X2 is away win or draw, 12 is either team to win. The model prints the stronger of 1X and X2 when its two outcomes together reach 80% probability, and shows the fair odds beside it.
Why are double chance odds so low?
Because the selection wins in two of three results. At 80% the fair price is 1.25, and the bookmaker's price is usually a little below that once its margin is included. The low price is the cost of covering the draw.
Does the model print 12, home or away?
No. It prints only the stronger of 1X and X2. You can still work out a 12 yourself: it is the home and away probabilities added together, and it is strongest in matches the model expects to be open, often with a clear favourite and a high scoring level. In tight, low-scoring fixtures the draw is too likely for 12 to be a good bet.
Is double chance better than draw no bet?
They answer different questions. Double chance wins on the draw; draw no bet returns the stake on the draw and pays more when the team wins. If the draw is the result you fear most, double chance is the cover. If you expect a win and want a refund as insurance, draw no bet pays better.
Why is a match in the 1X2 table but not here?
Because the bars differ. A favourite appears in the 1X2 table at 55%, but its double chance needs 80%. A team at 60% to win with a 25% draw chance makes 85% and appears on both pages; a team at 60% with a 15% draw chance makes 75% and appears only in the 1X2 list.
Can I put double chance in an accumulator?
Yes, and it is one of the most common legs in the model's own 2 odds slip, because an 80% leg at 1.25 adds price without adding much risk. Four such legs still only land together about four times in ten, so the usual accumulator warning applies.