Sure six straight win for today: the favourites the model rates highest, with the honest odds
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Readers search for six straight wins because six selections at short odds feel like a slip that cannot go wrong. It can, and this page is honest about that from the first line: the table below lists every straight win the model rates at 55% or more for today, however many there are, and each one carries the probability and fair odds that tell you how often it should land. Six is a reader's number, not the model's, and no tip or set of tips is ever certain.
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
What "straight win" asks of a team
A straight win is the hardest of the simple bets on a favourite, because the draw counts as a loss. The model's probability for it is the sum of every scoreline in which the team finishes ahead, taken from attack and defence ratings for both sides and the competition's scoring level and home advantage. For a strong side against a weak one that sum is high. For a slight favourite it hovers near the bar, and a slight favourite at 56% will fail almost as often as it succeeds.
That is why the probability column deserves more attention than the pick itself. Two straight wins at 56% and 57% combined have a joint chance near 32%; two at 78% and 80% are closer to 62%. Both pairs are "two straight wins", and they are not the same bet.
Straight win predictions for today
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
Direct win or double chance?
When a favourite sits between 55% and 70%, the question is whether to take the straight win or cover the draw with double chance. The straight win pays more and loses on a draw; double chance pays less and survives it. The model prints a double chance tip only at 80%, so when a match appears in both tables you know the team is very unlikely to lose and reasonably likely to win. When it appears only here, the draw is a real risk that the price should reflect. The banker of the day page shows the double chance table next to the strongest singles if you want to compare.
Straight win predictions for tomorrow
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
When a favourite does not win
The reasons are familiar and none of them are in the data before kick-off. Rotation before a European or CAF fixture. A manager protecting a lead at 1-0 and conceding late. A derby in which form matters less than usual. A pitch soaked by rain in the local leagues, which narrows the gap between a good side and a poor one. The ratings also lag: a club that has lost key players in a transfer window is rated on the results it earned with them for several more weeks.
The practical habit is to look at the team news for each favourite you intend to back. It is the single piece of information most likely to change the real probability, and it is the one the model will never have.
How we pick, and how to read the record
Every tip on this page comes from the Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model that runs the site, fitted on about three seasons of results with recent matches weighted more heavily and, where bookmaker odds are available, blended half and half with the market's implied probabilities after the margin is removed. The thresholds and the model's limits are on the methodology page. Each tip is logged before kick-off and settled from the final score on the track record page, so a bad week for favourites shows up there as plainly as a good one.
Before you back the list
Any bet can lose, and a slip of six favourites loses whenever one of them does. Choose the two or three you understand best rather than the whole table, keep the stake to money you can afford to lose, and look at the prediction for today page for the goals and BTTS markets on the same matches. Kick-off times are in East Africa Time, converted to your local time by the site. This site is for adults aged 18+ only; see responsible gambling for the limits you can set.
Favourites and every other tip, settled over 30 days
Every tip is logged before kick-off and settled automatically from the final score. Nothing is edited after the match.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
Promo code: MEGAGLOBAL
Frequently asked questions
What is a straight win?
A bet on one team to win the match outright in 90 minutes, with no draw cover. It is the 1 or the 2 in the 1X2 market. Double chance, which pays if the team wins or draws, is the alternative when you want the draw covered at a shorter price.
Why are there not always six straight wins?
The table prints every win tip whose probability reaches 55%, however many that is. On a full Saturday it can be twenty; on a thin Tuesday it can be two. Choosing exactly six every day would mean adding weak tips on quiet days and hiding strong ones on busy days.
Which teams must win today?
No team must win. The model gives each favourite a probability, and even an 80% favourite loses one match in five. Must-win pressure, where a club needs the points for the title or against relegation, is motivation that the model cannot see and that does not always help.
Is there a straight win prediction for tomorrow?
Yes, the second table on this page lists tomorrow's win tips. It is an early view that is updated overnight when today's results are added and, where bookmaker odds exist, as tomorrow's prices settle.
Is a home win prediction more reliable than an away win?
Home advantage is real and the model fits it for each competition, so home favourites appear more often. An away win tip has had to clear the same 55% bar against that advantage, which makes it, if anything, a stronger statement about the gap between the teams.
Are straight win tips settled on 90 minutes?
Yes. A cup match that goes to extra time is settled on the score after 90 minutes, as bookmakers settle 1X2. Postponed and abandoned matches are void.