Betting tips 1X2: home, draw and away calls with their probability
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
The 1X2 market is the oldest bet in football and still the one most slips are built on: home win, draw or away win. This page is the full match winner list for today and tomorrow, straight from the model. Each row carries the pick, its probability and the fair odds, and the lists rebuild automatically twice a day. What follows explains how to read a row, when the model is likely to be wrong, and how the tips are checked.
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
How a 1X2 probability is built
For every match the model starts from two ratings per team, attack and defence, and two settings per competition, scoring level and home advantage. From those it lays out the chance of every scoreline. Add up the scorelines where the home side has more goals and you have the probability of a 1. Add the level ones and you have the X. The rest is the 2.
The ratings are fitted on roughly three seasons of finished matches, and a result loses half its weight after about eight months, so last season's form counts but this season's counts more. Cross-border competitions in Europe and Africa tie the leagues together, which is how a Champions League tie between teams from different countries gets a sensible number.
1X2 predictions for today
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
Picking a row from the table
Start with the probability, not the pick. A home win at 58% is a modest favourite that will lose more than two matches in five; a home win at 78% is a strong one that will still lose one in five. Then look at the fair odds. If the bookmaker's price is above them, the model thinks you are being paid properly for the risk. If it is below, the price is tight, and the question becomes whether you know something the model does not.
Between those two numbers sits the decision that nobody can make for you. A slip of three favourites at 1.3 is not safer than a single favourite at 1.3; it is the same risk taken three times and multiplied. When you want a draw covered, the double chance tables are the sober alternative, and the draw prediction page explains the X on its own.
1X2 predictions for tomorrow
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
Where a 1X2 tip goes wrong
The model knows results and, where bookmaker odds are available, the market's opinion. It does not know that the first-choice goalkeeper is out, that the manager was sacked on Monday, that the away side has a cup final on Wednesday and will rest six players, or that a derby carries more weight than the ratings suggest. These things move the real probability and leave the table unchanged. When you have that kind of information, it belongs in your decision; the table is where you start, not where you finish.
A quieter point: the ratings react to results with a lag. A team that has just sold its best players will be rated on what it did with them for several more weeks.
How we pick, in plain words
Every tip on this page comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model, printed only when the favourite clears 55% or the draw clears 31%. Where bookmaker odds exist, the probability is a 50/50 blend of model and market with the margin removed. The methodology page lays out each step, including what the model cannot see, and the track record page shows how the 1X2 tips settled over the last 30 and 90 days, misses included.
Before you bet
Any bet can lose, including the favourite at the top of this table. Kick-off times are shown in East Africa Time and converted by the site; readers in Nigeria are two hours behind and readers in Ghana three. For the strongest single of the day rather than the whole list, the banker of the day page is built for that. TipsQuant is for adults aged 18+ only; see responsible gambling for limits and support.
1X2 and every other market, settled over 30 days
Every tip is logged before kick-off and settled automatically from the final score. Nothing is edited after the match.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
Promo code: MEGAGLOBAL
Frequently asked questions
What does 1X2 mean in betting?
It is the match result market. 1 is a home win, X is a draw and 2 is an away win, all judged on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties do not count, which matters in cup competitions.
When does a 1X2 tip appear on this page?
When the favourite's probability reaches 55%, or when the draw reaches 31% between two closely matched sides. A match where no outcome reaches its bar is left out, and so is any match in which a team has fewer than eight games in our data.
Are these the best 1X2 tips today?
They are the outcomes the model rates most probable, which is not the same as the best price. The top of the table is full of favourites at short odds. Value, if it exists, is usually lower down, where the fair odds and the bookmaker's odds disagree most.
Do accurate 1X2 predictions exist?
Accurate in the sense of calibrated, yes. A tip at 60% should land about 60% of the time over many matches, and we check that in public. Accurate in the sense of right every time, no. Any bet can lose.
Why does the model favour home teams?
Because the data does. Each competition has its own home advantage fitted from results, and in most leagues it is real and measurable. In a few competitions it is small, and the model uses the smaller number there rather than a one-size figure.