UEFA Conference League
Atalanta vs Pafos prediction: UEFA Conference League, Thursday 15 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Atalanta host Pafos in the UEFA Conference League on Thursday 15 October, kick-off 22:00 EAT. The match is played at New Balance Arena (Bergamo).
Who will win Atalanta vs Pafos?
The model makes Atalanta clear favourites at 60%, with the draw at 23% and Pafos at 16%. Megapari's 1.50 on Atalanta is shorter than our fair price of 1.66: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: Atalanta to win (60%) and Atalanta or draw (84%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta to win Tip | 60% | 1.66 | 1.50 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.31 | 4.50 |
| Pafos to win | 16% | 6.09 | 6.69 |
| Atalanta or draw Tip | 84% | 1.20 | 1.12 |
| Draw or Pafos | 40% | 2.52 | 2.65 |
| Atalanta or Pafos | 77% | 1.30 | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | 1.36 | 1.15 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 1.84 | 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46% | 2.19 | 2.36 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 73% | 1.37 | 1.49 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | 1.91 | 1.71 |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | 2.10 | 2.02 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 8 October 2026, 23:47 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Atalanta vs Pafos
Expected goals are 1.7 for Atalanta and 0.9 for Pafos, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 54%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 52%.
Atalanta vs Pafos correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-0 at 13%, ahead of 1-1 (12%) and 2-0 (11%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 12.8% | 7.81 |
| 1-1 | 11.8% | 8.47 |
| 2-0 | 11.2% | 8.93 |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | 10.44 |
| 0-0 | 8.3% | 12.05 |
Form: Atalanta and Pafos in their last five
Atalanta have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -2. Pafos have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +4. The results cover every competition in our data.
Atalanta: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Juventus (away)Serie A | 0-2 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Cagliari (home)Serie A | 1-2 | L |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Roma (away)Serie A | 1-2 | L |
| 31 Aug 2026 | Bologna (home)Serie A | 1-0 | W |
| 27 Aug 2026 | Hapoel Tel Aviv (away)UEFA Conference League | 1-0 | W |
Pafos: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2026 | AEL Limassol (home)Cypriot First Division | 0-2 | L |
| 13 Sep 2026 | AEK Larnaca (away)Cypriot First Division | 1-0 | W |
| 7 Sep 2026 | Olympiakos Nicosia (home)Cypriot First Division | 0-0 | D |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Karmiotissa Pano Polemidion (away)Cypriot First Division | 3-0 | W |
| 27 Aug 2026 | Dinamo City (home)UEFA Conference League | 4-2 | W |
Atalanta vs Pafos head to head
Atalanta and Pafos have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
How the odds have moved
Megapari's price on Atalanta has shortened from 1.51 to 1.50 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them.
| Bet | Opening odds | Latest odds |
|---|---|---|
| Atalanta to win | 1.51 | 1.50 ↓ |
| Draw | 4.46 | 4.50 ↑ |
| Pafos to win | 6.58 | 6.69 ↑ |
Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.
All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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