UEFA Europa League
AZ vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva prediction: UEFA Europa League, Thursday 15 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
AZ host Hapoel Be'er Sheva in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 15 October, kick-off 19:45 EAT. The match is played at AFAS (Alkmaar). AZ are 26th in the table with 0 points from 1 games; Hapoel Be'er Sheva are 20th with 1.
Who will win AZ vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva?
The model makes AZ clear favourites at 62%, with the draw at 21% and Hapoel Be'er Sheva at 17%. Megapari's 1.33 on AZ is shorter than our fair price of 1.60: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: AZ to win (62%) and AZ or draw (83%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| AZ to win Tip | 62% | 1.60 | 1.33 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.76 | 5.73 |
| Hapoel Be'er Sheva to win | 17% | 6.02 | 9.60 |
| AZ or draw Tip | 83% | 1.20 | 1.06 |
| Draw or Hapoel Be'er Sheva | 38% | 2.66 | 3.52 |
| AZ or Hapoel Be'er Sheva | 79% | 1.27 | 1.16 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | 1.33 | 1.09 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 1.73 | 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42% | 2.37 | 2.50 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 70% | 1.42 | 1.68 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | 1.90 | 1.80 |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | 2.11 | 1.92 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 8 October 2026, 23:47 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in AZ vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva
Expected goals are 1.7 for AZ and 1.1 for Hapoel Be'er Sheva, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 58%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 53%.
AZ vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 1-0 (10%) and 2-1 (10%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.9% | 8.38 |
| 1-0 | 10.5% | 9.52 |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | 10.34 |
| 2-0 | 9.2% | 10.82 |
| 0-0 | 7.0% | 14.35 |
Form: AZ and Hapoel Be'er Sheva in their last five
AZ have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +4. Hapoel Be'er Sheva have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. The results cover every competition in our data.
AZ: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Telstar (home)Eredivisie | 1-0 | W |
| 16 Sep 2026 | Sunderland (away)UEFA Europa League | 0-1 | L |
| 11 Sep 2026 | Willem II (home)Eredivisie | 1-1 | D |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Heerenveen (away)Eredivisie | 3-2 | W |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Go Ahead Eagles (home)Eredivisie | 5-2 | W |
Hapoel Be'er Sheva: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona (home)Israeli Premier League | 1-0 | W |
| 16 Sep 2026 | Dinamo Zagreb (home)UEFA Europa League | 0-0 | D |
| 7 Sep 2026 | Maccabi Tel Aviv (home)Israeli Premier League | 1-4 | L |
| 2 Sep 2026 | Hapoel Haifa (home)Israeli Premier League | 2-2 | D |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Hapoel Ramat Gan Giv'atayim (away)Israeli Premier League | 2-1 | W |
AZ vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva head to head
AZ and Hapoel Be'er Sheva have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
The rest of the UEFA Europa League is on our Europa League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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